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1-3 PLO - Flopped Middle Set in 3bet Pot

High__Rolla Posts: 752Subscriber
Hero ($1000) - unknown at this casino. Mildly winning, aggressive image although just lost $500 in a standard coin flip on the flop a few hands back. Joked with the winner afterward so shouldn't appear tilted.

MP1 ($1000) - loves to see flops, but plays more straightforward post flop. 60 years old regular.

Btn (covers) - playing fairly loose all night and up pretty big for the session. Approx 45-year-old regular.

Preflop - playing with a mandatory $6 button straddle. Action starts in the small blind. It's getting late and down to 7-handed. Hero raises to $20 in BB with QQ88ddcc. Two call in MP and the Button makes it $60. All call 4way to the flop.

I only remember the button 3betting once earlier but it was to full pot with aces and he called it off on a wet flop.


Flop ($245) - Kh Qh 6s. Hero checks, MP1 pots, MP2 folds, button calls quickly. Hero? $940 left.

I checked expecting button to bet this flop often since my stack size sets up for a CRAI, but maybe a lead is better. MP1 has a big piece of this flop to pot here. He is not taking a stab or betting something like the dry nut flush draw. I thought the buttons quick call indicated a hand like NFD, AJTx, or JT9x. I think he takes a little longer and may raise with a set or top two pair. I went into the tank and considered all three options here.


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Comments

  • MSK Posts: 48Subscriber
    edited June 2016
    if BTN has these hands in his range, what hands are left that we do well against that we can put into MP1s hands? It seems he is not doing this with 66 or K6, maybe even not with KQ which seems unlikely as you block those.

    I'm probably trying really hard to get live reads off of MP1 but will most likely end up folding this. I like folding this pre oop because if we can't get it in here w QQ, then I'm not sure it's proftiable to play to begin with if the other 2 cards are 88.
  • High__Rolla Posts: 752Subscriber
    MSK said:
    I like folding this pre oop because if we can't get it in here w QQ, then I'm not sure it's proftiable to play to begin with if the other 2 cards are 88.
    Do you mean open fold or fold to the Btn's 3bet?
  • High__Rolla Posts: 752Subscriber
    MSK said:
    if BTN has these hands in his range, what hands are left that we do well against that we can put into MP1s hands? It seems he is not doing this with 66 or K6, maybe even not with KQ which seems unlikely as you block those.
    I think you've hit the crux of the situation. If we assume MP1 plays top 35% of hand preflop and QQ88 are dead, here are the counts:

    35%:KK 5698 combos
    35%:KQ 4298 combos
    35%:66!KQ 1388 combos

    So, there are about the same number of combos of top set as there are top two or bottom set. However, I think he always plays KKxx this way, but not sure if he always pots with KQxx or 66xx.
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