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$1/$3: FH on River - what's your play?

irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
$1/$3. 100 BB cap.
Villain: Late 20's white guy. winning $1/$3 reg. Plays at least 25 hours per week. He can bet fold. He can float the flop to try to take the pot on a later street. He is capable of bluff raising the river. I saw him CR top 2 in a multi-way pot w/ top 2 (KTss) after limp-calling in EP vs preflop opener.
Stack: $500
Preflop: He opens to $15 UTG.
Hero: Calls w/ 66 in the BB. I have a good image. I have V covered as I've won a couple big pots vs a big fish at the table.
Pot: $25. We are heads up.
Flop: K 6x 2x. I lead for $15 & he calls.
Pot: $55
Stack: $470
Turn: Q . I bet $15 again. I was trying to induce a raise by looking a little weak. He just calls. At this point I think he has some sort of weak SDV type hand like KJ or a pocket pair between 77 & JJ.
Pot: $85
Stack: $455
River: 2 . I bet $40. He thinks for a minute or 2 & makes it $140.
Pot: $265
Stack: about $310.
River play
  1. What's your play on the river?11 votes
    1. Call
      36.36%
    2. Shove
      54.55%
    3. Raise to some other amount
        9.09%

Comments

  • LAMBECH Posts: 11Subscriber
    I would shove here every time. If villain has KK, QQ, 22, then that's just a cooler spot. A large river bet by Hero will either fold out any sort of weak hand that villain has or make the most against back door nut flush if villain doesn't believe you. Plus any raise with our stack size at this point is essentially an all in.
  • Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
    I like a bigger lead otf. If he calling 15 he is gonna call 25 imo.
    Ott im gonna bet alot bigger close to pot. That Q def could have helped his hand and if it didnt its not gonna scare him off AK.
    On the river im making another big bet. Im basically trying build the pot as large as possible. That way your the money goes in much easier on the river.
    As played im prob just calling against a villain that can bet fold KQ on this river. I dont think villain can have a flush very often because top pair otf is a. If top pair otf was not a im shoving this river because villain could have backed in to a flush
  • Dab44 Posts: 411Subscriber
    If your gonna lead, 15 is OK, but I think 20 or even 25 is better. Bet larger on turn, no need to get fancy to try to induce a raise..especially if you think this guy is good. You want to get value & hope he has a K or AA. If he doesn't so be it, but you have to hope he has a strong holding & you have to go for gold..River is an easy ship.
  • CountRoblivionCountRoblivion Posts: 54Member
    As played, I say call also. Backdoor flush makes no sense. The only hand that can call you that you beat is some kind of weird A2 or something.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    On that dry of a flop, I'm checkraising. He's going to be c-betting almost always, and a checkraise looks so full of shit. I like a checkraise flop/lead turn/bomb river line - it's going to look very polarizing, and should get the most value.

    As played, your leads are way too small. You need to somehow be setting up stacks, and leading tiny (especially on the turn) is not going to get it done. On the river, your small sizing throughout the hand may have induced a bluff. He easily could have JJ or A X× and raise your weak lead. If we reraise this river, do we expect to be good when called? How often does he show up with the nut flush? Not very often, but I don't see how he can ever lay that down. And with the propensity of KK/QQ/22 to raise the turn to protect against draws, I'm thinking you're against air most of the time, and the nut flush occasionally. I'm shoving river.
  • Dab44 Posts: 411Subscriber
    You guys that say not to shove River...If V is "good" do u not think that he would raise us on an earlier street if he had us beat?? (KK,QQ)....he may flat flop with KK, but if he is any kind of player he will raise turn!! & if he ran into set of QQ on turn. He should be raising. He could easily have a BD flush...I'm sure he could have a lot of floats with our BS $15 lead. Flatting River is missing too much value. He has more combos of flushes, 2x, & air than hands that have us beat.
  • Beatsme Posts: 585Subscriber
    Dab44 said:
    You guys that say not to shove River...If V is "good" do u not think that he would raise us on an earlier street if he had us beat?? (KK,QQ)....he may flat flop with KK, but if he is any kind of player he will raise turn!! & if he ran into set of QQ on turn. He should be raising. He could easily have a BD flush...I'm sure he could have a lot of floats with our BS $15 lead. Flatting River is missing too much value. He has more combos of flushes, 2x, & air than hands that have us beat.
    Yeah this is a pretty good point.
    I guess he could float sometimes with AdQd or AdJd.
    On the other hand im not sure how many suited broadways or suited connectors a "good player" opens from utg. And would he really call off with a low flush?

  • Dab44 Posts: 411Subscriber
    beatsme said:
    Dab44 said:
    You guys that say not to shove River...If V is "good" do u not think that he would raise us on an earlier street if he had us beat?? (KK,QQ)....he may flat flop with KK, but if he is any kind of player he will raise turn!! & if he ran into set of QQ on turn. He should be raising. He could easily have a BD flush...I'm sure he could have a lot of floats with our BS $15 lead. Flatting River is missing too much value. He has more combos of flushes, 2x, & air than hands that have us beat.
    Yeah this is a pretty good point.
    I guess he could float sometimes with AdQd or AdJd.
    On the other hand im not sure how many suited broadways or suited connectors a "good player" opens from utg. And would he really call off with a low flush?

    We aren't sure how wide this guy is opening. Who cares if he would call off or not?....We have the best hand very often. Also, an all in bet is like a min raise in this spot...I'm sure he would make a crying call with a flush
  • PBJTIME Posts: 338Subscriber
    An all in bet is not like a min raise here. We had 455 stacks going into the river. We bet 40. He raised to 140. A min raise would be $240. An all in bet would be $455. That's far from a min raise. 3 bet shoving could get all flushes to fold. I'd prefer to raise smaller to get value from hands that we beat. A raise to $250-$300 will accomplish that. Your description of this villain leads me to believe that he is capable of folding a flush here so let's not blow him off the worst hand.
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    dpbuck said:
    On that dry of a flop, I'm checkraising. He's going to be c-betting almost always, and a checkraise looks so full of shit. I like a checkraise flop/lead turn/bomb river line - it's going to look very polarizing, and should get the most value.
    This is the right answer. "As played" shouldn't really matter.

    Trying to debate what we should do on the river is really a moot exercise in my opinion. Solving that problem doesn't do anything to fix the egregious betting mistakes earlier in the hand.

    We flopped a set, $485 effective. Make a plan for three streets of betting.

    Depending on his c-bet size either 65/120/300 or 50/100/335 are fine betting strategies. Now execute.
  • Dontusethis Posts: 20Subscriber
    When it gets into hoping to induce a raise, maybe you have a history but l don't see many people period raise turn lead in that spot. What would he do that with? Not his Kx hands is that's what he has because that only folds worse and gets called by better.

    I have learned playing 1-2 2-5 and 5-5 that it's difficult to induce and bluff by weak leading and the frequency that even the players that are capable of doing it would actually do it is not enough to ever show a profit y taking such a line
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    Dontusethis said:
    When it gets into hoping to induce a raise, maybe you have a history but l don't see many people period raise turn lead in that spot. What would he do that with? Not his Kx hands is that's what he has because that only folds worse and gets called by better.

    I have learned playing 1-2 2-5 and 5-5 that it's difficult to induce and bluff by weak leading and the frequency that even the players that are capable of doing it would actually do it is not enough to ever show a profit y taking such a line
    I wouldn't do this vs most of the $1/$3 player pool. Most of them aren't capable of bluff raising rivers either but I've seen this guy do it before including at least once during this session. He is consistently looking for spots to attack weakness. And I know he is aware enough not to bluff short stacks. We are deep enough for him to make a move.

    I think CRing looks pretty strong I think. I didn't want to force a fold by taking a strong line. I was hoping to induce a raise 1st or at least get value 2nd w/ this bet sizing.

    I'm not sure how much of a value range he has that will just flat the flop, then bet the turn if checked to or continue if CR'd.
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    Spoiler:
    I shoved & he folded.
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