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$2/$5: Hero Call River?

[Deleted User] Posts: 0
edited June 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
$1500 eff. Villain is an aggro Italian guy. Saw him 5-bet light (after 3-betting the button and getting 4-bet) to $600 and show a "5" 10 mins ago. Sick puppy. Not an idiot by any measure. Has a fold button.

V opens to $25 UTG, I call OTB with 9 9

Flop: 6 2 4 Pot $57 He bets $40, I call.

Turn: J Pot $137 He bets $105, I call.

River: 3 Pot $347 He bets $230.

I called quickly both times. He took extra time OTR compared to flop & turn.

1. Should we call? Why/why not?

2. What do you think of raising and repping 75s? Too narrow?
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Comments

  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    I think its actually quite close as his value range is quite wide.

    I don't think its unreasonable for him to vbet:

    AA-JJ,AJ,KJ,QJs,66,22,44 = 51 combos. Lets give him half the 65s,33,55,A5s combos as well as this player type might elect to barrel those with a pair and gutshot. So in total its probably around 60 combos.

    For bluffs lets give him all the flopped gutshtos and flush draws. I gave him an UTG range of AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-Q9s, JTs-65s, J9s-97s. If you write it all down it arrives at about 24 combos give or take which means its a roughly break-even call based on these assumptions.

    I think in practice I would call, as our perceived range looks pretty weak and based on the description of the villain, and experience with the no-equity bluffs this player type can show down.


  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 1,989SubscriberProfessional
    Am I crazy for wanting to raise/fold this river? I agree that we are ahead of villain's range enough to profitably hero call. But can we fold out some one pair hands with a raise? Can villain lay down a big pair, putting us on 54/56/A5? Or will we get looked up lighter because clubs missed?
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    dpbuck said:
    Am I crazy for wanting to raise/fold this river? I agree that we are ahead of villain's range enough to profitably hero call. But can we fold out some one pair hands with a raise? Can villain lay down a big pair, putting us on 54/56/A5? Or will we get looked up lighter because clubs missed?
    Maybe a little crazy. TT+ and Jx aren't huge parts of his range. So raising might be a little spewy.

    Plus, with an aggro 3 barrel villain, I'd really like to see his hand
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    I do like a bluff raise sometimes, math wise prefer to use a hand that is less or not profitable to call and has better blockers to V's calling range
  • dpbuck said:
    Am I crazy for wanting to raise/fold this river? I agree that we are ahead of villain's range enough to profitably hero call. But can we fold out some one pair hands with a raise? Can villain lay down a big pair, putting us on 54/56/A5? Or will we get looked up lighter because clubs missed?
    I think we're much more likely to have 75s than 54/56/A5.
  • stayinschool said:
    I do like a bluff raise sometimes, math wise prefer to use a hand that is less or not profitable to call and has better blockers to V's calling range
    So you're calling here?

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    JapanTown said:
    stayinschool said:
    I do like a bluff raise sometimes, math wise prefer to use a hand that is less or not profitable to call and has better blockers to V's calling range
    So you're calling here?

    probably, not too many better hands
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    That we can have
  • MasonIsAClown Posts: 102SubscriberProfessional
    Call, like stayinschool says we are near top of our range. based off his aggressive tendencies and the fact we think he can play a little, he's gonna know this board texture is gonna require three barrels often when his flush draws brick off. He also sounds like the type who just may just decide he's gonna fire off three with some percentage of his air hands.

    I don't think 57 or 55/56 makes up a big enough part of our range to credibly bluff here. It looks very FOS. If he thinks we get here with and can still have 33 or 34s on river when we raise, it may be pretty close, but I doubt he's gonna be thinking that.
  • Spoiler:
    I folded, asked him to show a bluff and he showed A
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