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Preflop spot LLSNL

Long time lurker... Forums and podcasts have been a big help. Hoping I can get some opinions on a preflop spot. I am playing in the middle of the night between Friday night and Saturday. Table next to ours broke and 3 players come to our table. One puts chips down and leaves. The other two sit. One of the incoming players mentions how guy who put chips down has been playing every hand and has wild swings.

: Villains :
UTG: loose passive player who limp calls ~ 50% of hands. Have not seen him raise. $125
MP: "Maniac" player. Have not seen him play a hand yet, only have what hijack said about him. $110
hijack: young player. Made comment about maniac. Had headphones in but is paying attention. $350

Couple hands later I am UTG+1 and have TsTd. Hero has ~$400

UTG limps $2
I raise to $12 with TsTd (standard raise)
MP - who was not paying attention it was his first hand back - raises blind (confirmed by player next to me) to $30. Not sure if he noticed if I raised or not.
hijack thinks for a while and calls. Dont think he noticed if maniac looked at his cards.
UTG calls. Action back to hero.

What do you do? Is folding too tight? Raising too aggresive?

Comments

  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    edited July 2016
    I think you have to decide right now, if you're playing this hand for it's value as a pair, or for set value. Calling and simply set mining is a perfectly justifiable play. However I think that given stacks, it's most likely a break-even proposition. The short stacks are only offering like 12 to 1 (rough math). It's better than folding though, by alot.

    The two players in between you and the maniac just cold-called three bets. I doubt either of them are slow playing and certainly not both. They know V is a maniac, it wasn't a very big 3-bet, and...odds or something. It's very likely they have a hand that needs to hit a flop before investing any more money. You should not let that happen.

    Raise to $130. If you get called by either or both of the shorties, you're a huge favorite in a race. If headphone guy calls, I think you just shove anything that's not A or K high. I really can't imagine he'd call though. He'd really have to raise or fold. And if he raises, I think you can fold.
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Doesn't see how we can ever not shove if MP is really in the dark.
  • ChipChairmanChipChairman Posts: 41Subscriber
    I was 90% sure he didnt look (he was talking to his GF who was railing) and after the hand person to my left confirmed he didn't look.
  • irwinbetirwinbet Posts: 383Subscriber
    You can't call to set mine here. You said MP started w/ $110 & made it $30. That's not even close to deep enough to set mine. If he truly did 3bet in the dark then you definitely have to raise & probably raise even if he did look since he's a "maniac" w/ only $110. You likely have the best hand here & you're not going to see a lot of flops you love w/ TT 4 handed.
  • TaintBDTaintBD Posts: 244Subscriber
    I like the pre-flop shove -- you are way ahead of the two short stacks with low SPR. Highly unlikely the HJ is sophisticated enough to just flat AA/KK; very likely he reraises/shoves if he has QQ/JJ/AK?
    If you reraise and hope for no overcards (will come over 50% of flops) then I think it is too weak. Blindly shoving non-A/K is too high variance in my mind because creates WAWB
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    irwinbet said:
    You can't call to set mine here. You said MP started w/ $110 & made it $30. That's not even close to deep enough to set mine.
    "not even close"??

    Odds of flopping a set are 7 to 1. When the action gets back to us there is $102 in the pot and it's $18 to call. That's 5.6 to 1 right there. We only need to get another $25-$30 in post flop when we hit.
  • PBJTIME Posts: 338Subscriber
    BananaStand said:
    irwinbet said:
    You can't call to set mine here. You said MP started w/ $110 & made it $30. That's not even close to deep enough to set mine.
    "not even close"??

    Odds of flopping a set are 7 to 1. When the action gets back to us there is $102 in the pot and it's $18 to call. That's 5.6 to 1 right there. We only need to get another $25-$30 in post flop when we hit.
    Odds of flopping a set are 7:1 but just because we flop a set doesn't mean we have a 100% chance of winning the hand. Usually if we are going purely for set mining, we want to get at least 10:1. However, 18x10=180. V has 80 behind so we do barely get to what we want.

    I feel like this is sidetracking the actual debate. The OP never asked about set mining.

    TT is an easy shove with these stack sizes vs a random dark hand.
  • TaintBDTaintBD Posts: 244Subscriber
    Bart's rule is 15x bet size to profitably set-mine
  • ChipChairmanChipChairman Posts: 41Subscriber
    Sorry for the long delay..... When action was back to me, I thought I was way ahead of villain's ranges and even if maniac had KQ/AJ+ I was flipping and there would be dead money. So I reraised to $112 with 4 green chips on top. Maniac calls all in. Headphones folds. UTG Calls leaving himself 12$ behind.


    Flop 8-5-3r

    UTG checks, I bet 15$

    Standard?
  • JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    Perfect I think u played it well that $12 dollars doesn't matter to the hand and needs to go in no matter the flop. I am guessing u lost the hand and that's why the post but I think u played it really well
  • MastaC707 Posts: 95Subscriber
    Just a side note, its not a shove preflop, Hero has aprox 400 and HJ has aprox 350, its a raise to putting in the maniac.

    Masta--
  • doubletap Posts: 166Subscriber
    i think its possibly the player in late position could be slow playing here, im probably just calling
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