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Chicken out or make the Big Bluff?

JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
edited July 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villian is a rec player up on day. He plays pretty fishy from time to time but is only a small loser. The game is 2-5 1800 effective. Hero has a solid image and straddling, Mid position- villian 2 -opens to 40 button- Villian -3 calls and main -Villian -in sb calls. I squeeze with Ahkc in straddle to 200, mid position calls and button folds and sb calls.

600 in pot flop jd 4h 2s sb donk leads 200 - I have seen him lead a single pair in spots like this several times I decide to float cause I think it looks really strong with player yet to act on my left and it is a likely line I would take with kk aa or qq on this board, so I call and Villian 2 folds, turn qc Villian 1 flat bets 200 again. And has 1200 left. What's your play?
I think he most likely has a jack or mid pair under the jack.
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Comments

  • MikeG Posts: 989Subscriber
    These sort of donk bets are usually indicative of top pair -ish hands, so I think your read that he has a decent J or TT-55 is probably right, which makes this Q a good bluff card.

    I also think squeezing here is a good play.

    Now, besides that, I have some problems and they center around this:
    Villian is a rec player up on day. He plays pretty fishy from time to time
    I decide to float cause I think it looks really strong with player yet to act on my left and it is a likely line I would take with kk aa or qq on this board
    Most moderately fishy rec players are not thinking about the game the way that you are, and so you are going to run into problems. It doesn't matter that this is how you'd play AA-QQ and it especially doesn't matter that this should look really strong when you flat the donk with a player behind. The rec-fish is unlikely to be thinking about any of those things. Most likely, the fish is thinking "weeeeeee lots of money in the pot and I have top pair." Beyond that, bluffing rec-fish when they figure to have a made hand is generally not a recipe for success. More often than not, you'll find yourself thinking, "How could you have possibly called there?" while he is stacking your chips.

    But there's another problem here if we weight his range toward Jacks. What sort of jacks is V likely to have? He's only a small loser in the game and he's calling a re-raise from the sb. Most fish are not showing up here with j3. They're going to have a lot of hands like AJ, KJ, QJ, and JT. Here's the problem with that: AJ and KJ mean that you have reverse implied odds half of the time you hit your hand and QJ means that the one other scare/bluff card actually improves his hand. Add to that, we're deciding to float with the original raiser still to act, meaning we're getting squeezed here some percentage of the time. For all of those reasons, I don't like floating here.
    by 1JKH
  • squishmytomatosquishmytomato Posts: 351SubscriberProfessional
    this is almost always a jack. the "same bet" on the turn indicates weakness 99% of the time. i'd bump it up to 500 or so.
  • TaintBDTaintBD Posts: 244Subscriber
    I agree that fish are not paying attention to what you are 'repping' with your flop play. Donk bet indicates a J. Turn same-bet indicates weakness and he is afraid of the Q BUT your average 2/5 fish simply will not fold to a Turn bet just because Q is a 'great barrel card'. Nope, he will call.

    So I recommend just calling the $200 Turn bet and evaluate River. If you are intent on bluffing then when he checks you shove. If he bets River I would just give up.

    The reverse implied odds of KJ or AJ is an excellent point and I believe one which will be demonstrated by the fish River play. If he hits 2pair with River A or K he will let you know with a big bet.
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    edited July 2016
    If I were the SB, and I flopped a set of 4's, I would definitely lead at this flop. I'd expect the squeezer to have an overpair pretty often and raise. ANd if he doesn't, I'd expect him to bluff raise sometimes too. And if he just calls....well, there's nothing wrong with simple value.

    I don't think it's wise to narrow the SB's range to just a J. And even if we do, the RIO problem everyone else has already mentioned looms heavily over this hand.

    The pre-flop squeeze is fine. It's big enough to get the folds you want much of the time. And when it doesnt', like this time, you got two callers with a hand that has a 30% chance to make TPTK. All of that sounds fine, and +EV all by itself. If you hit a flop, or have a good bluff opportunity, then that's gravy. But this hand is NOT gravy.

    You totally whiffed the board. Someone donked into you with something that is probably not air. You have no front door draws. Dog-shit for backdoor draws. And you have 6 outs to improve, half of which might be filthy dirty.

    Just fold flop.

    This is where discipline becomes important in poker, especially live. You were driving the action and now you have to abruptly surrender. It doesn't feel good. It feels meek, weak, exploitable, and wishy-washy. But please please please don't let your ego convince you to keep trying to tapdance your way through this hand. I dont' think it's good that you consider it "chickening out". Sounds tilt-y
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    I'm not against folding the flop, I probably raise the flop myself as this donk bet is weak jack most of the time... what I'd never do is call the flop.
  • Dab44 Posts: 408Subscriber
    Personally, I would bluff raise this flop all day!
    Apply pressure & take back control of the pot
    We can credibly rep AA/KK/QQ
    We may not play all over Overpairs this way, but it doesn't matter!
    I love raising donk leads, it's a strong play, in the right situation & this appears to be one of those spots. Stacks are deep enough to barrel. I say bump the flop up to 550-600
    If called evaluate turn & barrel many cards
    This turn would be great since we pick up equity & it's an over card!
    Bluff raise flop all day man!

    As played, raise turn to 770...we want to maximize fold equity
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    I agree with @Dab44. We should be raising this weak lead on the flop. We are deep and can fire again on turn and river if needed.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    edited July 2016
    Interesting that vil called original raise from sb then your big re-raise.. this is usually a sign of strength. On a board this dry and his half pot bet on flop I think an overcall is a great play..

    When he bets the same amount again he most likely has a jack with a really good kicker.. he called twice from the sb so I would be super surprised if he had anything other than AJ or QQs.. (QQ might take this weird line hit the turn set and make another small bet because he doesnt want you to fold now)...

    So before I try a big bluff like this I have to feel that villain is

    1) capable of folding
    2) Your line seems reasonable
    3) Villain isnt sandbagging a really big hand like a set..
    4) Can you raise big enough and still have enough effective stacks for another barrel on river?

    to determine these factors I usually go back and remember all the hands I have seen villain play and if they all go together then I say raise.. but I disagree with some of the posters sizing. We want him to fold NOW.. making a raise to $500 is giving him too juicy odds to stick around.. pot would be $1200 only $300 to call.

    I would raise to something like $750 and that still leaves us with around $700 for a river shove.. hmm.. so this isnt quite enough in my opinion. So if you get called on the turn and dont have enough to barrel the river then raising the turn is really really bad.. In that spot I would almost rather float turn again and if a KQ come you can try to make a big bet.. I dont think the Ace would work since I think his most likely hand is AJ..

    If an ace came on river after you floated I would make a small $300 bet hoping to get called by a jack .. I doubt he is raising you ..

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    On another note.. I am a little suspicious of sb can have a set.. Is this guy so loose that he is overcalling TWICE with a small pair and then just leading out with it on such a dry board??? I seriously doubt it. These players as described would check call flop check raise turn.. He doesnt have many sets in his range AT ALL..

    We can do the combinatorics that vil might play most AJs this way only KJ suited maybe one combo of QJ suited this way.. and maybe a small portion of QQs..

    AJ there are 16 combos- we have one of the Aces so that reduces his combos to 12.. so lets say he will play this hand this way with 10 combos

    KJ suited there are 4 ..but again we have one of the kings so that makes it 3..
    QJ- one combo
    QQ -AA , 22 44 very weird line with an overpair or set.... maybe a really small number of combos.. say 3..


    so that means that AJ is 10 combos
    Everything else is only 8 combos..

    so you can see how many more combos there are of AJ vs anything else I can come up with that seems reasonable

    I think I would call turn again and see what he does on the river.. if he checks to you then I am betting for value a K or an Ace..(ie small enough to get called)

    or bombing it to get him to fold.. so if the pot after the turn call is $1600 I might bet $800 on river to get him to fold..

  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    edited July 2016
    bunch of payoff wizards in this thread. Holy moly.

    Hammah was clever enough to point out that his double-flat pre-flop is a little conspicuous. That's usually a line that SCREAMS pocket pair to me. Not sure how she came to the conclusion that Villain doesn't have any sets "AT ALL". But if you wanna find out for sure, go ahead and stick another $750 in there with ace-high.

    This doesn't seem like a good board to be check-raising if you're the SB. Kinda turns your set face up. The guy isn't bet/folding into a pre-flop raiser, and a pre-flop 3-bettor. He's hoping you'll raise.

    I smell JJ
  • JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    edited July 2016
    Ok so here is what I did and how the hand played out. Please give me your thoughts.... It might could debatably have been a little reckless but here goes

    Spoiler:
    I raised him to 1400 putting him all in. I raised so big because I felt like it was mainly about the money for him and if I put him all in now he would still be up 200 after he folded. I feel like if I made it less he may level himself into a call and because he is a fish just become pot committed and call the river as well. Also in my opinion I thought he would interpret the huge raise as a huge hand and was not capable of levelling himself like some clp players and think the big over bet was a bluff. I tried to make the raise look as strong as I thought possible by sliding in a stack of black 100 chips. I also have history with him and have never seen him play tricky and flatbed a big hand, so I was 95% sure his hand was capped at a jack and with the overcard on the turn thought That that would also help hinder him from calling.

    He thought for what seemed like forever and I just focused on steady breathing. Then finally folded after 8-10 minutes and him literally saying I think u just have AK here but for 1200 more I will give it to you.
    Then I asked him if he would like to see and I showed him and the 70 year old action player beside him naked ak.
    He said after the hand he had J10 off .... Which for how badly he plays position I completely believe.... I still think the AJ and kj are in his range and I could of been giving myself reverse implied odds but luckily it worked out..... This Was my only big bluff of the night and as a funny side note the 70 year old guy that saw my hand paid me off in 3 healthy pots over the next 1.5 hours. Although I am still not convinced I did the right thing by showing my hand.

  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    DONT SHOW YOUR CARDS!!!! ARRGGGHHHH...

    you ruined it.. now he will never fold to you .. I WANT ppl to fold to me ..make them pay to see your bluffs.. other than that I like the way you played it..

    by 1JKH
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    edited July 2016
    Read the spoiler.....Pretty good chance that villain lied about what he was holding. He wouldn't tank that long with that hand when your range is rich with so many better hands. My guess is he folded 22/44

    I really think you just got lucky here. your reads and actions seems to contradict each other.

    If he's bad enough to have JT here......that means he's bad in a way that "calls too much". Bluffing is only exploitative if his tendency is to "fold too much". Even when your bluffs are >200Bb's, I don't think you're gonna have very much luck long-term trying to get people to fold top pair on dry boards at this level.

    If you think about it, your pre-flop play was designed to exploit folks who call too much. But then you missed the flop and got bet into, so now you're tryign to re-cast the villain as someone who folds too much. Regardless of the result, that is not sound poker logic.
  • JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    BananaStand said:
    Read the spoiler.....Pretty good chance that villain lied about what he was holding. He wouldn't tank that long with that hand when your range is rich with so many better hands. My guess is he folded 22/44

    I really think you just got lucky here. your reads and actions seems to contradict each other.

    If he's bad enough to have JT here......that means he's bad in a way that "calls too much". Bluffing is only exploitative if his tendency is to "fold too much". Even when your bluffs are >200Bb's, I don't think you're gonna have very much luck long-term trying to get people to fold top pair on dry boards at this level.

    If you think about it, your pre-flop play was designed to exploit folks who call too much. But then you missed the flop and got bet into, so now you're tryign to re-cast the villain as someone who folds too much. Regardless of the result, that is not sound poker logic.
    I agree getting people off top pair of better even when deep is dangerous and not what I try to practice but he had second pair when he folded .... If he had j 10 when he folded.
    I agree it is possibly border line reckless because he is a Cally Rex player but i thought we where deep enough to try

    Please explain why you are saying "your reads and actions seems to contradict each other"
  • JKH Posts: 835Subscriber
    edited July 2016
    Thehammah said:
    DONT SHOW YOUR CARDS!!!! ARRGGGHHHH...

    you ruined it.. now he will never fold to you .. I WANT ppl to fold to me ..make them pay to see your bluffs.. other than that I like the way you played it..

    Thanks and I always go back and forth with weather I should show my cards on big bluffs 5 years ago my bluff showing frequency was probably like 85% now I have it reduced to probably down to 25%

    Do u think there are ever good times to show the bluff.... Does anyone think there are good times to show the bluff .... ie.... Like when it would severally tilt a player and likely lead them to monkey tilt punt off there stack?
    What's everyone's thoughts?
  • MikeG Posts: 989Subscriber
    He said after the hand he had J10 off
    Always nice when you are bluffing and run into near the bottom of their range. I still don't like the play because I think he's coming along with too much of his range, but glad it worked out! Agree with Hammer that I wouldn't normally show.
    by 1JKH
  • MikeG Posts: 989Subscriber
    My guess is he folded 22/44
    lol wat?
  • Rocketman74Rocketman74 Posts: 451Subscriber
    Villain is bad obviously. He called twice pre with JT and then donked TPNK into the you. He wanted to 'find out where he was' and you should have told him. Your turn raise doesn't look exactly credible (and that's why he tanked) but sometimes your line doesn't need to make sense when it's 200bb+ to the face. :cool:

    It was a little reckless and the flop was the place to make your move but... NH
  • BananaStandBananaStand Posts: 1,455Troll
    JasonH said:
    Please explain why you are saying "your reads and actions seems to contradict each other"
    It was literally in my next sentence. You had a read for one type of villain, and then took a line that exploits an entirely different kind of villain
    JasonH said:
    Does anyone think there are good times to show the bluff ....
    Yeah, when you rarely bluff. If you happen to get a calling station to fold, show the bluff. You already know he's call-happy, so there is no harm in making him want to call more. Generally you shouldn't be bluffing calling stations, but sometimes a c-bet gets through, or you can rep trips and get them to fold a pocket pair. Showing in those instances is probably ok.
    MikeG said:
    My guess is he folded 22/44
    lol wat?
    What else tanks for 8 minutes? What are we repping? From villain's perspective, we either have QQ/JJ or total air.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,086Subscriber
    the ONLY time I would show is if vil is likely to go to tiltmonkey zone after.

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