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Cooler hand or miss play?

MarcusMarcus Posts: 104Subscriber
edited August 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
5/5 late night
Hero has a tight winning image
Hero has not seen the villain 3-bet all night

$950 effective

Hero opens mp1 with Ad Kd to 20. Two players in the field call. After they call the Ks is exposed. Action gets over to the Villain in the SB who makes it 125 to go. I flat the 125 and we go to the flop heads up.

Pot $290
Flop
As 6c 4c Villain checked the flop blind. I bet $150. Villain makes the call.

Pot $590
Turn 3s Villain checks again and I bet $350. Villain moves all in. The raise is about $325 coming back to me. I make the call and the villain shows AA.

At any point in the hand with the given information would you have played this different or is this just a cooler spots?
Consider the exposed K preflop and the 'check dark' on the flop.
Cooler hand or misplay?
  1. Is this a Cooler?3 votes
    1. Yes
      33.33%
    2. No
      66.67%
Tagged:
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Comments

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Cooler, total cooler
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,069SubscriberProfessional
    edited July 2016
    After I see the K exposed I am pretty inclined to fold.. What can villain be 3 betting with then? QQ and AA.. my equity against that range is not so good.. unless vil can be 3betting with worse..

    AKs value in myho is when 1) they have a worse kicker... If the King is exposed that means its super unlikely that villain has a king. Furthermore what Ace is he now 3 betting with ?

    card elimination and blockers can be super useful in situations like this. As having that one less out just makes this a fold preflop imho..You got lucky to SEE your outs diminished yet you still called the 3 bet..

    Then villain keeps showing strength on the flop .. you have to stop and think to yourself "what ace can he have?"

    or in another way.. You have AK thats one king gone.. then one is shown.. that means thats two gone.. how many total combos of AK are left? its (4 aces -minus the one in your hand) * 2 kings left.. = 6.. 6 combos.. How many combos of QQ.. 6 .. would he 3 bet JJ? how many combos of AA? 3..

    so there are only 6 combos you tie..
    9 you lose (AA and QQ)

    villain is showing alot of strength.. can he really be 3 betting with say AQ here? I discount alot..

    This is an absolute perfect example of why hand reading is just so important. This is NOT a cooler.. but a hand you SHOULD have gotten away from. Use all the available information and whats left is the best answer you have .. He has to have AA..

    also next time.. dont show what villains has.. Its better to wait or put it in a spoiler.. you will get better responses..

    ww
  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Wendy are you saying fold pre or post?

    I don't really think we can ever fold post, we loose to 1 combo. Don't think we can fold pre either, we just of too good of equity even with K gone when IP.

    I mean AK plays this way I think, I've seen KK play this way too, deciding to just go with it on the turn. Also don't think we can totally take out an AQ type hand.

    Folding here to just 1 combo doesn't seem possible




  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,069SubscriberProfessional
    Post flop sure.. I can see going with it.. but pre I am folding a big majority of the time against typical opponents..

    As I said.. card elimination can remove a ton of hands here.. My main question to OP is vil the type of player to 3 bet with a wider range. If so then I can see still calling.. If not.. bye bye AK ..

    Post flop.. Again we must ask ourselves if villain ever 3 betting a worse ace pre.. If not we are basically chopping. or villain has AA..

    If we are chopping there are 6 combos of which our equity is 50%..

    Or we are losing to AA of which there is one combo and our equity is 0% 6 +1 = 7 I think the math goes 6*50 = 300 then divide by 7.. and we get like what 30% ish equity..

    of course we are getting this if villain plays JJ or even AQ this way..but I am suspect of that given the turn action.. check calling then check raising all in on turn.. I would say villain is NEVER doing this with a worse ace nor any other hand but AK..

    So that does leave hero in a pickle..but I am not generally in this spot since I am folding pre ..to a typical villains 3 bet range..

  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,214Member
    edited July 2016
    The standard 3! Range in a $5 blind game would be QQ+ AKo+ and JJ around 1/2 the time.
    I don't mind the call IP for several reasons not only because we have AK.
    Flop I might check back since I doubt you're getting 3 streets in this spot from worse and you'd give him a chance to bet worse OTT once flop Checks through.
    AP
    Check back the turn for the same reasons I mention above, you're not getting 3 streets, bet river if checked to or call depending on sizing.
    Eh, yeah it's tough to find a fold button for that price once you bet that big and he stuffs but you'll be calling off to chop or to lose since I doubt he's stuffing AQ in this spot.

  • ClockClock Posts: 1,064Subscriber
    First of all I think I would fold pre.
    You haven't seen him 3bet once, so what do you think you're ahead of?
    One K is out too - even worse. $20 to $125 is a pretty big 3bet, also you're not even closing the action.
    Seems like a fold pre.

    On the flop, ok, so we hit - awesome! :tu:
    I like the flop bet, but remember the range we're targeting JJ+, I might bet a little less like $125, but ok - so far so good.

    Turn - I think turn bet is a mistake. Again, you have to think what range you're targeting.
    Do you honestly think you're getting 3 streets out of KK? I'm either checking to confuse the villain and get paid on river or if I am betting, I'm betting really small, like $200-$225.
    $350 is a HUGE bet.
    How is he gonna call that with KK/QQ? Unless he's a total monkey - I don't see that.

    Now Villain x/r our HUGE bet AI... WHAT???
    That really doesn't make sense for KK/QQ.
    The only hand that he could POSSIBLY do that with that we don't lose to is AK (and I think it's a stretch), but AA make perfect sense.
    Putting him on something like AQ is just wishful thinking I think.
    First of all I don't see him 3betting AQ pre, 2nd he must have checked flop when he hit and now he x/ring AI on turn - cmon...all those things combined are just so so far fetched. :???:

    Given your turn bet - you're getting ~2:1 to win half the pot (if you chop with AK), but you're up against 4 total combos of AK which I think we can probably reduce to 2 or even 1 combo, and 1 combo of AA.

    I think it's a fold that woulda been much easier if you sized your turn bet more appropriately or even checked it back.
  • FreeBrady Posts: 18Member
    Thehammah said:
    Post flop sure.. I can see going with it.. but pre I am folding a big majority of the time against typical opponents..

    As I said.. card elimination can remove a ton of hands here.. My main question to OP is vil the type of player to 3 bet with a wider range. If so then I can see still calling.. If not.. bye bye AK ..

    Post flop.. Again we must ask ourselves if villain ever 3 betting a worse ace pre.. If not we are basically chopping. or villain has AA..

    If we are chopping there are 6 combos of which our equity is 50%..

    Or we are losing to AA of which there is one combo and our equity is 0% 6 +1 = 7 I think the math goes 6*50 = 300 then divide by 7.. and we get like what 30% ish equity..

    of course we are getting this if villain plays JJ or even AQ this way..but I am suspect of that given the turn action.. check calling then check raising all in on turn.. I would say villain is NEVER doing this with a worse ace nor any other hand but AK..

    So that does leave hero in a pickle..but I am not generally in this spot since I am folding pre ..to a typical villains 3 bet range..


    300/7 = 42.85%. But on the flop, with the king exposed, there are only 4 combos of AK, and one combo of AA. So 200/5.....40% equity if that were indeed the range we put him on, which would make it a call since were getting far greater than 1.5-1. I do agree with most of the advice on here though. Once we see the flop, and as played, there's nothing we can do. I do highly prefer a turn check, since we are pretty much overplaying our hand with the way hero played here. We can assume villian is always folding JJ-KK/air here on the turn. So our bet does abs nothing, aside from trying to fold out AK..which is never happening. Your flop bet is fine, but a turn check and bet on river when checked to is by far best line. We can assume your error here did not cost you money in this instance, since the result would have been the same in the end.

    Got to agree with people suggesting you don't post results before feedback...since i doubt anyone would be advocating folding AK PF had they not been privy to the results. After he raises its 185 to 105, so were getting a little less than 1.8 to 1. I calculated we need to have 36% equity to be break-even. AKs vs a range of strictly QQ+ and AK has us at 42% equity. I did not remove the dead exposed king, which reduces the number of combos from 21 to 18 i believe...so that 42% is a tad high, but were still above the 36%. Villians image of a tight guy who hasn't 3 bet yet is problematic, but is offset a tad by the fact his raise sizing is more indicative of AK or QQ than AA (and we would HAVE TO KNOW that he has AA for us to correctly fold here). Were also 200 BB effective which promotes a call. And lastly, the 2 flatters make this more of a potential squeeze/protect spot from villian. Now i know a lot of villians like this are rarely adjusting their range here based on 2 flatters, and their ranges stay static. But the fact is, we have to make some kind of assumption that his range could potentially be wider with 2 people flatting our open VS if we opened and it folded to villian, who then 3bet us cold. You also have to give even the nittiest villians here SOME bluffing range. Can we honestly say he has a bluff here 0%? This guy has never ran a preflop bluff in his entire lifetime of playing poker? I'm not saying its anything significant...but there is a non-0% chance this guy has air. And even assigning the range 2.5% bluffs can sway things.

    Using your reads when playing live is essential. But no read is ever 100%. I can't tell you how many times I've made major assumptions and put villians "in a box"...only to be completely stunned when they flip their hand and reveal that they played in a way i would have never expected. Once again its rare...and some player types are more reliable than others....but everyone makes plays that are out of character for them some percent of the time.

    Bottom line is PF, even with the king exposed, you were getting better odds than your 36% equity needed to beat the tight/standard range we assigned of QQ+ Ak+ (so assuming he NEVER has air, or JJ). Then on the flop there's just not much to be done. It's a semi close spot, but aside from the turn play...you made the right decisions. I vote COOLER.
  • FreeBrady Posts: 18Member
    edited August 2016
    The exposed king reduced the combos of AK from 9 to 6....but also the combos of KK to 1. The range equity calculation is as follows:

    AA- 3 combos @ 12.14%
    KK- 1 combo @ 34.11%
    QQ- 6 combos@ 46%
    Ak- 6 combos @ 51.6%

    36.4 + 34.11+ 276 + 310 = 656.51 equity sums/16 combos = 41.03% equity vs range

    *The range equity dropped only slightly from 41.9% to 41.03% with the exposed king being removed.

    *We are getting 1.76 to 1 and need >36% equity for our call to make money, so the PF call is correct.

    *Adding 3 combos of JJ (villian decides to 3bet JJ half the time), and a small air range of 89s and 67s (12 combos),
    raises our equity from 41% to 46.5%.

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    FreeBrady said:
    The exposed king reduced the combos of AK from 9 to 6....but also the combos of KK to 1. The range equity calculation is as follows:

    AA- 3 combos @ 12.14%
    KK- 1 combo @ 34.11%
    QQ- 6 combos@ 46%
    Ak- 6 combos @ 51.6%

    36.4 + 34.11+ 276 + 310 = 656.51 equity sums/16 combos = 41.03% equity vs range

    *The range equity dropped only slightly from 41.9% to 41.03% with the exposed king being removed.

    *We are getting 1.76 to 1 and need >36% equity for our call to make money, so the PF call is correct.

    Totally agree with this. People also make too big of a deal of not seeming someone 3 bet. Live samples are not relevant for this type of thing. It is very possible this guy just hasn't got dealt a hand to 3 bet in the time we have sat with him. Remember, you not only have to get dealt the hand but someone has to open in front of you.

    Finally there is always the possibly that the guy gets board. Plenty of times i've played with someone for hours and they have played tight, then it gets later at nigh and they 3 bet and all of a sudden show up with QTo. People are not robots.

    Folding pre flop is making WAY too many assumptions that we cannot make.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,064Subscriber
    You cannot calculate your EQ like that preflop.
    Are you making assumption that it's gonna get checked all the way down to the river?

    Pre-flop is not a huge mistake either way, I just don't see what we're dominating and how we're gonna get paid even if we hit vs. the type of player I imagine described 3bettor is, but EQ calculations are not appropriate here I don't think.
  • FreeBrady Posts: 18Member
    Agreed, the sample of hands live are so small that it's really tough to gauge exactly what lines and ranges people are taking. Creating a general profile/player type for a villian is usually a lot more reliable, but its only an assumption. Just bc you played 6 hours (~150 hands) with someone who you didn't witness 3 bet doesn't mean you can then jump to the extreme conclusion that they only 3 bet AA here. Or even the narrow AK/QQ+ range we assigned (which we are +ev against). Saying AKs is a fold here assumes you know this guy is 3 betting only AA. Which is an amazing example of taking a relatively small observation that we should only assign a small amount of weight to....and letting that information influence us into making a major mathematical blunder that folding AKs PF here would be. This is just one example...but there are many situations where your small sample live reads can lead to some real large errors.

    Say you play live for a living, and this is your main game that you grind full time. The villian in this hand is a massive nit-reg who you have played 300+ hours with (7500 ish hands). You take rigorous notes. You have observed every 3bet this villian has ever made, and it has only ever been AK, KK, or AA. He never has air and just calls QQ/JJ. We see the king expose, villian 3 bets to $125...and guess what? We are still 38% and are +ev on a call.

  • stayinschool Posts: 2,969Subscriber
    Clock said:
    You cannot calculate your EQ like that preflop.
    Are you making assumption that it's gonna get checked all the way down to the river?

    Pre-flop is not a huge mistake either way, I just don't see what we're dominating and how we're gonna get paid even if we hit vs. the type of player I imagine described 3bettor is, but EQ calculations are not appropriate here I don't think.
    yes we won't realize exactly our 41% equity or whatever, but we are still going to be over the 36% needed. We are still suited and can make straights.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,064Subscriber
    stayinschool said:


    yes we won't realize exactly our 41% equity or whatever, but we are still going to be over the 36% needed. We are still suited and can make straights.
    I'm just saying from purely theoretical/math stand point I think it's incorrect to calculate/assign EQ like that.

    The "correct" way would be to:
    - calculate odds of flopping A or K and then EV on each subsequent street vs. V range (taking into consideration that V might be folding most of his under PP)
    - odds/EV of flopping a draw and odds/EV of continuing vs his likely C-bet with OP type of range and implied odds/EV of getting paid if we hit our draw on later streets
    - odds of flopping nothing and (presumably) giving up
    -calculate combined EV

    Basically what I'm saying is it's a pretty complicated math that prob requires something like Card Runners EV program to run simulation rather than simple EQ % :wink:
  • FreeBrady Posts: 18Member
    Clock said:
    You cannot calculate your EQ like that preflop.
    Are you making assumption that it's gonna get checked all the way down to the river?

    Pre-flop is not a huge mistake either way, I just don't see what we're dominating and how we're gonna get paid even if we hit vs. the type of player I imagine described 3bettor is, but EQ calculations are not appropriate here I don't think.
    I agree. There are still future streets/bets to take into consideration. And considering he has the betting lead and uncapped range vs our perceived capped range, he has a sizable advantage here. But we made pretty conservative estimations and the numbers were still very good, so i have a hard time seeing this being a fold even if applying showdown equity is inappropriate here. So what can we do to determine what equity on the flop we need to have to justify a call PF? If we assume that we are never putting another dollar unless we flop 1 pair+ or a strong draw, then calculate the overall % that will occur....then calculate equity of each one of those vs his range? Is that how we would do this?
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,069SubscriberProfessional
    Clock lemme see if I can try to explain it this way..

    Equity preflop.. so my chances of winning that $125 raise plus the dead money is say the 40%..

    My equity based on his range to continue for a flop bet is say much lower.. Say only 5% (why because he cant have many worse aces and there are much fewer AKs or KQs in his range due to the K being exposed)..

    Then calling a turn bet too.. now that is going to be super tiny..

    Now you could take the line of checking flop and betting turn and river to get some value.. but again even though the equity in those bets might be pretty high the frequency of villain calling is so low that the combined value is going to be tiny. maybe even smaller than say 20%..



    So a potential model would look like this:

    Preflop we know we have around 40% equity. Pot if we call is $290.. So 40% of 290 is $116.. (hmm thats almost the size of the raise)..

    Flop.. we are going to check to get value on a later street so no value on this one..

    Turn. villain checks again.. Now we can bet on the smaller side to get value from JJ-KK (even though there is only 1 combo of KK).... I might bet $100.. so our value on the $100 is the liklihood we are good multiplied by the frequency villain will call us.. Since there is really only one hand that beats us our equity is high.. but the calling frequency is lower.. so maybe we get called half the time.. that means only $50 in value for that street..

    River its checked to us again.. now we bet another small bet.. and this might be say $200.. I think we get called even less frequently. Say 35%.. so thats only $80 in value..


    So we called the 3 bet to $125.. from $20.. $105 more.. and all we made is $130 additional??? And thats hitting top pair and top kicker!! If we missed are we continuing? going to try and bluff this guy???

    Thats why I am saying fold pre.. not because it isnt +EV.. but you can get into sticky spots with it and you probably just wont make that much money..


    Now given the way you played it I think you get everything worse to fold and so you are only neutral ev pre because you bet so big on flop and turn ONLY AA and AK will continue
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,064Subscriber
    Thehammah said:
    Clock lemme see if I can try to explain it this way..

    Equity preflop.. so my chances of winning that $125 raise plus the dead money is say the 40%..
    Except its NOT 40%!

    1 King is dead so we have 5 outs out of 49 cards to hit a pair that's roughly 27% chance
    (plus odds to flop 2p, straight, flush, boat or quads - I will just ignore those since it's very very tiny chance)

    So let's say 28% chance to hit the flop, but that's not even 28% equity since we've likely vs JJ+, AK

    I'm not gonna count AK, since it's chop...


    -vs JJ, QQ (12 combos) - we're ~28%
    (this is generous since we know chances of him 3betting with JJ are not the same as with KK or AA, but let's give him ALL combos)
    -vs KK (1 combo) - we're 16% (3 outs out of 49)
    -vs AA (3 combos) - 0% (I'm ignoring flopping 2p+ here for simplicity)

    Overall EQ to outflop is 22%. As you can see - far from 40%!!! :wink:
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,069SubscriberProfessional
    edited August 2016
    @clock

    So True!!! Also we have to take into consideration that after our call we miss and villain can bluff us off the hand.. Although I think that is unlikely since I dont think he is 3 betting all that often with say AQ or AJ.. and with the King exposed he has fewer KQ or KJ he might be 3 betting with too..but again I doubt he is 3betting all that often with those..

    The gist of why I would fold is this:

    If we hit we are unlikely to make much money given our range of villain being heavy with QQ or JJ.. We have to call a rather large 3 bet and then not make much money if we hit..

    On the negative side we miss and are forced to fold.. or even worse we hit and up against AA and get stacked..

    So our upside potential is low and our downside potential can be our whole stack.. Note that I might fold AK pre even without seeing the King against a ABC player for the same reasons.. But seeing the King makes this an easy fold for me because it limits hands I can win with and limits hands he can have that are worse..

    edit: Now had the pot been say 3 ways to the flop then back on me.. now there is alot more dead money.. So lets say vil 3 bet to $75 and a couple players called and I have AK.. there I think its much better spot to call..

    ww
    by 1Clock
  • MarcusMarcus Posts: 104Subscriber
    Clock said:


    Except its NOT 40%!

    1 King is dead so we have 5 outs out of 49 cards to hit a pair that's roughly 27% chance
    (plus odds to flop 2p, straight, flush, boat or quads - I will just ignore those since it's very very tiny chance)

    So let's say 28% chance to hit the flop, but that's not even 28% equity since we've likely vs JJ+, AK

    I'm not gonna count AK, since it's chop...


    -vs JJ, QQ (12 combos) - we're ~28%
    (this is generous since we know chances of him 3betting with JJ are not the same as with KK or AA, but let's give him ALL combos)
    -vs KK (1 combo) - we're 16% (3 outs out of 49)
    -vs AA (3 combos) - 0% (I'm ignoring flopping 2p+ here for simplicity)

    Overall EQ to outflop is 22%. As you can see - far from 40%!!! :wink:
    I appreciate the feedback but you need to go back and check the math on the equities. Please don't just throw around arbitrary numbers. The numbers you are stating are are misleading. It looks like you are mixing up equities post flop and pre flop. I know with completely certainty that I am not drawing dead preflop with AK vs AA. And AK vs KK is not 16% either.

  • ClockClock Posts: 1,064Subscriber
    Marcus said:


    I appreciate the feedback but you need to go back and check the math on the equities. Please don't just throw around arbitrary numbers. The numbers you are stating are are misleading. It looks like you are mixing up equities post flop and pre flop. I know with completely certainty that I am not drawing dead preflop with AK vs AA. And AK vs KK is not 16% either.

    I was replying to a specific comment, referring to the EQ to win the pre-flop $$$
    AK is drawing dead vs AA (if you discount <1% of flopping a joint)

    That's my original point -that ppl are plugging in AK vs <range> into equity calculators and using the result to calculate if you can make the pre-flop call.
    That's incorrect.
    I stand by my statement and math.

  • MarcusMarcus Posts: 104Subscriber
    Clock said:
    Marcus said:


    I appreciate the feedback but you need to go back and check the math on the equities. Please don't just throw around arbitrary numbers. The numbers you are stating are are misleading. It looks like you are mixing up equities post flop and pre flop. I know with completely certainty that I am not drawing dead preflop with AK vs AA. And AK vs KK is not 16% either.

    I was replying to a specific comment, referring to the EQ to win the pre-flop $$$
    AK is drawing dead vs AA (if you discount <1% of flopping a joint)

    That's my original point -that ppl are plugging in AK vs <range> into equity calculators and using the result to calculate if you can make the pre-flop call.
    That's incorrect.
    I stand by my statement and math.

    please clarify any % in preflop and postflop if you are going to post at all. Or else the numbers don't mean anything

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