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Scariest river card in the deck - good bluff spot or not?

whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
NL 5/5 with a live straddle to 10.

I don't remember the stack sizes and bet sizes to the exact cent, but it doesn't matter all that much I think.

Hero (CO) with approx. 1,250 - have been playing pretty tight so far compared to the rest of the table, but running bad and loosing during the first two hours so far.
V1 (BTN) 3,000 - very solid and competent reg, does handread well; plays lots of hands in position, but is rather straightforward postflop; doesn't really float with crap to make a move on a later street
V2 (SB) 1,500 -; weaker player, plays too many hands from OOP, is generally aggressive postflop with his strong hands and more passive with his weaker hands; has shown bluffs as well, but only from in position and has played them aggressively from the start;

Folds to hero on CO who raises to 30 with KspadeJspade
V1 (BTN) calls, V2 (SB) calls, BB folds

Flop (100) AdiamondKclubTspade
V2 leads for 65,

I thought that V2's leading range is strong, since he would check-call with most weaker or drawing hands; for this reason, the flop is close, and I have poor relative position. But on the other hand, I have 2nd pair, a gutshot + BDFD, and V1 is not making a lot of moves, so I called.

Hero calls, V1 calls behind

Turn (around 300) Qdiamond
V2 leads approx. 240,
I now know for sure that V2 has the straight too, b/c he would check/call with any other hand, and his betsize is huge; so, my options are obv. calling and raising.
I chose to only flatcall after some deliberation in order to misrepresent my hand, and b/c I don't want to get freerolled by the straight + FD.
(Is this FPS?)

Hero calls, V1 calls
V1 calls rather quickly, so I think he has a straight as well most of the time (and might not raise for the same reasons I didn't), and maybe a FD or two pair a low % of the time. I would discount sets a lot b/c he would raise the flop with them most of the time IMO to build the pot and get value from worse hands. FDs are mostly low, b/c the Adiamond and two other high diamonds are on the board.

River (around 1000) Tdiamond
V2 checks, hero shoves 900 more.
This is the scariest card in the deck. So is this a good spot to bluff both villains of their likely straights?
(Thoughts on other streets are also appreciated.)

Comments

  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    The first thing that pops into my head is that this is obviously a wonderful spot in a heads up pot since V2 seldom checks a hand better than yours on the river.

    Having V1 behind you here makes really does throw a spanner into the works since he can actually have a fair number of rivered flushes (king high flush draw mostly,Jd[7-9]d sometimes). Is villain ever the sort to slowplay big pairs pre-flop? Does V2 ever squeeze in this sort of spot?

    I haven't quite decided what I think yet... I'm not sure how often V1 has a rivered flush or something like kings full/aces full vs. how often they both have a straight and you get at least one of them to fold.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I am very confident (>90%) that V2 has no better hand than a straight.

    Agree that it comes down to how often V1 has me beat. I have played about 12-15 hrs. with V1 lifetime, so no very exact reads. Have seen him flatcalling a raise with premiums, but that was OOP with eff. stacks of > 400 BB, so it shouldn't be that representative. He's actually 3betting me quite a bit, and especially when We are late position. For this reason, I would expect him to 3bet his premiums as well. V2 doesn't squeeze light, but he's one of the weaker players on the table, so V1 might flat a non-zero % to keep V2 in the hand?! Besides, I think if V1 had slowplayed a big PP and flopped a set, he would raise the flop at least > 50% of e time.
    Have seen V1 make river overbets in spots where his range contains all nutty combos while his opponent's range doesn't, so he definitely would be capable of shoving the river as well. Not sure if he thinks I would do the same with a straight, but he understands that he can't call for a chop with a player left to act.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    Yeah, this is a really weird spot since it seems like the villain should at least sometimes be jamming J's on the turn since your hand does not look a ton like a straight and he can make a profit by getting you to fold your range's portion of the pot.

    If the villain has a flush, he could easily have KdJd on down to Kd2d with KdJd most likely since it is the best hand preflop and on the flop but also somewhat discounted since it will jam the turn hoping to free roll at least some of the time.

    I'm not sure what two pair hands the villain could have since if he is decent at reading hands he should probably fold the turn with anything less than a set or a flush draw. 8% equity max here is not enough implied odds to try and fish for your stack. Likewise AA, KK and TT are unlikely combinatorially and linewise since they 3bet preflop and raise on the flop a reasonably high portion of the time. I think the most likely full house that beats you might be QQ, but none of the full house hands are particularly probable.

    Another question here is how often you can check, have V1 shove, get V2 to fold, call and split the pot. The upside here is that you get V1 to put money in wider. If he checks you and V2 probably get to split the pot, while if he shoves, you and V1 split the pot at least sometimes.

    If you shove, the options are:
    1. V1 calls, V2 folds: You lose $900 most of the time.
    2. V1 folds, V2 folds: You win $1000
    3. V1 and/or V2 calls: You win $333 - $500

    If you check, the options are:
    1. V1 checks: You and V2 split the pot almost always, +$500
    2. V1 shoves, V2 folds: You call and split the pot with V1 at least sometimes, EV: -$900 - +$500 as a function of how often he has you beat.

    This is a close decision. Your range is not weighted strongly to hands better than V1 in this spot, so I don't think you will get him to fold chops that often. There is not a good range of hands that you or he can represent that beat a straight by the river. I think shoving is probably the best play here since it gives the other players the biggest chance to make a mistake.
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    OminousCow, thanks a lot for your thorough analysis!

    What I find particularly interesting in your analysis is one aspect which I will try to rephrase. There are basically two ways to judge the river spot:
    a) either my turn flatcall makes my range more set/FD heavy => only then is my river bluff believable => but if this is the case, V1 should also have FDs and sets in his range after calling the turn
    b) or both V1 and I still do have lots of straights in our ranges after merely flatcallng the turn => then my move might be very risky!?

    So, how would you guys play the turn? Is there merit in flatcalling, or do we generally need to raise here?
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    Anyone else with an opinion on turn and river play?
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Interesting hand!

    Three handed, I would prefer to raise the turn and get it in -- yes, you might be freerolled if one of the Vs has exactly Jdxd, but you would be getting value from inferior hands and FDs some of the time, and perhaps making a tough decision for straights with no redraw.

    I don't mind calling turn as an alternative line, and I do think that you are representing FDs and sets more effectively as played, so I like the thought. However, button is representing the same thing, so you there's certainly a chance that you can get called by better. But it'd be a tough decision for even flushes to call given the paired board. I'd be more likely to do this if these villains are more likely to make folding errors than calling errors (as Ed Miller would put it), hard for me to tell from your descriptions of them.
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