Welcome.

Take a tour. Enjoy some free sample content.

How it works

Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
New to Crush Live Poker?

Flop bottom set on monotone board

player1 Posts: 10Subscriber
edited October 2016 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain in this hand is a Spanish-speaking man in his early 40s that Hero don't remember playing with before. He is wearing headphones, singing along to his music, and drinking beer. He hasn't been at the table for very long, and seems to be just an average bad player (not nitty, and not maniacal).

$2/3 NL with a flat $5 drop
Effective stacks $285

Preflop:
3 Limpers
Hero (SB) 2 2 Completes
V (BB): Raises to $20
1 Limper calls
Hero calls

Flop: K 9 2 ($61 after drop)

Hero: Leads for $45
V: Raises to $150
Other preflop limp-caller folds

Hero: ???

(math shortcut: V has $115 behind, pot is now $256)


Call, shove, or fold here? Was this the best way to play this (including the bet sizing)?

Spoiler:

Hero calls (more worried about him having a higher set here than a flush, decided to call and evaluate turn)

Turn: K 9 2 A ($361)

Hero: Checks
V: All-in for $115
Hero: takes about 10-15 seconds to consider V's range and pot size/odds
V: Calls the clock

Tagged:

Comments

  • Jacklamb Posts: 561Subscriber
    edited October 2016
    Well if you're calling just to evaluate the turn, that's a bad turn and you should now fold. You are close to being priced in to hit a full house, but you think he also might have a set and you're drawing to 1 out.
  • Dragon-Ash Posts: 199Subscriber
    edited October 2016
    Pre-flop call is close for me but fine. The $20 raise seems small for a $2/3 game; was this normal for the table? I'l raise to 20 in my normal £1/2 game. If it is on the small side, I'd normally say AA, KK, QQ seem unlikely. 99 seems quite plausible tho.

    So of the combos that have us crushed (3 of KK, 3 of 99), let's just say 1 combo of KK and 3 of 99. Four combos in all, where our equity is like almost zero.

    Other plausible combos that villain might play this way: AcKx, AcQx, AcJx, AcTx, KxQc, KxJc, KxTc, K9x, all remaining AcXc hands, plus other flush hands (high broadways and high-ish suited connectors; would seem weird for villain to open so small over limpers with a mid or low SC).

    Higher sets have us crushed, but I really only think 99 would be likely. We're obviously well ahead of any hand with just a single club in it, and we're ahead of K9 (and *don't* want the board to pair LOL). We're behind if he has a made flush, but will have 7 outs on the turn and 10 outs on the river to boat up. If we treat this like an all-in, the pot would be $371, $220 to call. I haven't crunched the math here, I think it's pretty close either way, and in general I just think folding sets at the low stakes is almost always a mistake; too many weird hands villains can sometimes show up with.

    I hate calling. It's basically giving your opponent an escape hatch to make a hero fold if the board pairs. If you call, and don't boat up on the turn, you'd have 10 outs, need to make 3.4 x 115 = $391 for the call to be neutral EV, the pot will be $476 if he ships, so you'd have the odds to call, ergo you're never folding so just get it in on the flop.

    Obviously if you think villain would *only* do this with a higher set, then it's a trivial fold on the flop, not the turn.

    As played, turn means villain can't have any of the NFD hands, and yet continued to bet - that suggests to me that it is more likely that he doesn't have a set and instead flopped a flush. As noted above we have the odds to call so call it off and bink the boat pls.
  • Letmewin1 Posts: 1,238Member
    edited October 2016
    if you're calling flop to improve OTT then fold now, if you want to see if you could improve with 2 to come then shove flop you have enough equity to do so.
  • pokertime Posts: 2,180Subscriber
    ^ this and LOL spoiler!
  • MasterJC55 Posts: 31Subscriber
    I think calling on the flop is a mistake. Either fold or ship it. If you beleive you are ahead a fair amount ship it. If he has the flush you have outs to boat and will see 2 cards.
    by 1CycleV
  • CycleV Posts: 912Subscriber
    I'm shipping the flop, but I most likely woulda folded pre.
  • BartBart Posts: 5,820AdministratorLeadPro
    edited October 2016
    I think if you are going to bet the flop you have to just go with it and ship it over the top of his raise. It wouldnt suprise me if he raises with AK AA, A Q× etc.

    The turn is very strange. I mean do you ever see him raising out of the blind with a hand like QJ, QT, JT suited? Most of his flop raising range should really slow down on the turn unless he has the Q in his hand (Like a hand like QQ or KQ). Not sure if people monkey bet AA, KK, AK here when the club appears. If you discount the fact that he bets all-in here with sets on the turn I think you have to all right? Pot is $475.. $115 to call? 10/44 you need 3.4-1, 9/44 (AQ or KQ) you need 3.88-1.

    BTW this is where the math of "multiple outs by 2 on the turn all-in" is slightly flawed. If he shows you his hand and it is Q× Q the dirty math way would be to say that you have 20% equity (10 x2) and need 4-1. So a bet of $115 pot size would need to be $460. The precious way if using unseen cards in the deck yields $391 or more needed in the pot to be neutral EV or more. Seems a bit picky but hope you guys can see my point. Can be off by as much as 15%.

    For those advocating folding are we scared that he has KK or AA? And if thats the case is he doing the same thing with AK? There are 9 combos of AK and 9 combos of A, K and 9s sets. If we say that these two offset each other (he ships with a set with the same frequency he ships with top two on this 4 flush board) then their effect on the equation basically cancels out and we are left with the same answer.
  • laphonso Posts: 69Subscriber
    High five dealer, move chips to middle
    by 1Dusty
  • workinghard Posts: 1,561Subscriber
    preflop I think is close. he make it about 7x and you're OOP. however, you are closing the action with two callers.

    flop: i like leading out. when he raises, you have two choices and calling isn't one of them in my opinion. If you "call to evaluate" and a 3, are you going to check fold if he bets? There are lots of hands he can have that are worse than your set and he can catch up to. I really think you just have to get it in. If he has out flopped you, it's just a cooler and move on to the next hand
  • player1 Posts: 10Subscriber
    Thanks for all the input, everyone! You confirmed my suspicion that I should have just shoved the flop.

    Curious for those of you that felt that it might be a fold pre: Calling $17 into a $49 pot with the preflop raiser having $265 more behind... why wouldn't you call here? This exceeds the 15x rule so I thought it's a clear call?

    As played, calling the turn was easy after I did the math. Also, I didn't feel like the villain would shove the turn and then call the clock on me with anything other than a flush.

    Spoiler:

    Villain ended up having 8 8× :???:
    River was a brick
  • Dragon-Ash Posts: 199Subscriber
    edited October 2016
    Bart said:
    I think if you are going to bet the flop you have to just go with it and ship it over the top of his raise. It wouldnt suprise me if he raises with AK AA, A Q× etc.

    < snip> Pot is $475.. $115 to call? 10/44 you need 3.4-1, 9/44 (AQ or KQ) you need 3.88-1.

    BTW this is where the math of "multiple outs by 2 on the turn all-in" is slightly flawed. If he shows you his hand and it is Q× Q the dirty math way would be to say that you have 20% equity (10 x2) and need 4-1. So a bet of $115 pot size would need to be $460. The precious way if using unseen cards in the deck yields $391 or more needed in the pot to be neutral EV or more. Seems a bit picky but hope you guys can see my point. Can be off by as much as 15%.
    I don't use the 'rule of 4 & 2' anymore at the tables, but did notice how different the answer was when I did the 44 unseen cards rule calculation above.

Sign In or Register to comment.