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Claire gets in another gross spot with deep stacks

UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
edited November -1 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Villain is a super cocky tournament guy who wants to make it known that he's a tournament specialist. He's a big hero caller and built his stack up to over $3k by making hero calls with super weak hands like A high. And he happened to be good those times. He's on the aggro side but also can't fold and doesn't do a good job of value betting thinly.

He doesn't give anybody much credit for having anything, so I wouldn't expect him to give me credit for anything either

2/5
Hero has $2600 effective and villain covers

Hero makes it $20 with red TT from MP
Villain 3bets to $70 OTB
Hero calls

Flop ($147) As Ts 9c
Checked through

Turn Ac
Hero checks
Villain bets $120
Hero raises to $450
Villain calls

I expect him to never fold an A here if I take this line. He would probably call here with any pair because he likes to put everyone on a bluff.

River red 3 ($1047)
Hero bets $1000
No point in betting small here for value against this guy when he thinks I'm polarized

Villain does the hollywood for a couple minutes and then says he's all in.

Am I supposed to put him on A3? I lose to AA and A9 and AT, but I feel like those hands should have bet the flop...
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Comments

  • BugsyBugsy Posts: 40Subscriber
    Wow...that's a doozy but from what you described of your villain, he could easily have AK and thinks he's best in this hand.

    Maybe he was trying to be cute on the flop but because he definitely did bet the turn, I smell AK, AQ, possibly AJ. I don't see him having A3 Claire. Could he possibly have AA? Sure but I believe his whole range leans in your direction as having the best hand. He might think KK is good here too.

    Bart always says, these guys at this level rarely bluff the river though, so ..... there's that point too. But again, from your description of this guy...cocky ego+brag=possible overvaluing his hand and not accessing your hand and line properly.

    I'm still learning but at this point, that's my take on it.
  • shmed Posts: 321Subscriber
    Bet flop. Perfect spot to vbet an a. As played call. Fine if he has better but you cant fold at these pot odds
  • whatsyourplay? Posts: 752Member
    I am not really excited about it, but I am calling here fore sure. Villain will show up with AA here quite a bit. But since there's only one combo, villain only needs to play one combo of AK as played this and it becomes a clear call. I don't think this is an unrealistic assumption at all.
    Of course, he might show up with another random value hand like AT or A3 once in a blue moon, but then again he might also play 99 or Ax like this, so these hands a probably a wash.
  • BigOwl Posts: 80Member
    NH I think you played the hand fine. Like already stated call river, I think you can be good here 1out of 4 times.
  • The Clubber Posts: 110Member
    This is really an ugly spot. I keep going back and forth. I don't think he would check AA, A9 or AT on the flop very often when the board has straight and flush draws, so my gut is saying call,

    But then I don't think he expects you to fold on the river once you've invested over $1500 no matter how cocky he is, your line looks so strong. If he had trip aces on the river, it seems more likely he'd call rather than turn his hand into a bluff. He might bluff a missed draw, but does he think you will fold AQ in that spot? If he can't often expect you to fold my gut says to fold. It's weird to be bluff catching with 10s full, but I don't think he's raising 9s full here and expecting worse to call.

    Since he's a tourney player, he's more likely than a cash player to 3-bet a weak ace in a position ("cuz i'm blocking AA bro"). Then again he might also be more likely to bluff raise the river since people hate calling for their tournament life.

    Sigh call?
  • The Clubber Posts: 110Member
    Also, it seems like checking the turn here is a mistake, the board has two flush draws and a straight draw. If he did check a weak ace on the flop he's calling. I would hate to see him check back the turn. A checkraise might build a bigger pot, but I'm not sure I'm counting on him to bet for me.
  • RobertStan Posts: 2Member
    Claire

    When I first saw your post and you described villain as a tourney player the first thing I thought about is he is trapping with AA.. but as everyone else has said I dont think you can fold the river now..

    One thing about tourney specialists I see them overvalue hands all the time.. they have to or you bust.. so the fact he tanked and then shoved either means he was hollywooding or he is weaker than you. Only you can tell us what he looked like when he tanked... if he seemed distressed then I would say you are good almost all the time. If you think he was acting then I would think you are not good almost all the time. very polarized.. but getting 3:1 I dont think I could fold.

    ww
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,085Subscriber
    Yup.. thats my post above as well. seems like there is some cross accounts or something..
  • STL_Bob Posts: 26Subscriber
    Miserable spot in hindsight it sounds like. I was trying to think through my line on each street, I think everything is fine though the river, I was trying to think about how I would size a river bet. I think you are spot on, with him thinking that your range is totally polarized. I was thinking about a bet of 1250 on the end which I think would pretty well commit me to the pot.

    Please let him wake up with 99 for the cooler.
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    with the possibility that he is value shoving worse, i don't think you can fold river. AK can value shove trying to get called by AQ, but a tournament player is going to think AK is the stone nuts here. another worse hand he can show up with is 99. with one combo of AT and one combo of AA (the most likely hands that beat you), you have to sigh-call here.

    (did we factor in the tiny % of the time that a tourney player might be pulling some retarded float / spazz here?)
  • STL_Bob Posts: 26Subscriber
    chilidog said

    (did we factor in the tiny % of the time that a tourney player might be pulling some retarded float / spazz here?)
    Oh this would be sweet to call and have him flip two pair...seems like its about 1% of the time.
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 205Subscriber
    Bob H said
    chilidog said

    (did we factor in the tiny % of the time that a tourney player might be pulling some retarded float / spazz here?)
    Oh this would be sweet to call and have him flip two pair...seems like its about 1% of the time.
    Two pair? Yeah, like 1%. That is never going to happen.

    This is a tough one Clair. I think I've changed my mind about what he must have 3 times since I started writing. But I'm going to stick with this one, I think.

    You say he's stacked up on hero calls, so if he's got a bare ace, why not that? When you check raised the turn and potted the river you're repping a boat or a really strong Ace and I don't think you have too many bluffs in you're range. I don't think you're polarized at all. When he shoves the river he MUST expect you to call so any bluff here would be near suicidal. So If he expects you to call, then why the Hollywood on the river, why not just stick it in? Because you can't have an ace that's why. No ace raises PF and then checks top pair twice, not on that board. Double suited with connectors? Wetter than a well diggers ass. You might have Tens, you might have Nines but never an ace. The theater must be intended to grease the skids a bit just in case you were hesitant.

    3:1, hmm, those are some pretty enticing pot odds and in the heat of battle I probably make the call, but upon reflection I don't see how you can be ahead 25% of the time. I may be out leveling myself but this smells a lot like AA.
  • The Clubber Posts: 110Member
    If there's a hand to nominate for podcast discussion I think this is my #1 candidate. Interesting decisions on all streets.

    I'm wondering if leading the river is a good choice. What do you think villain's range is when he calls on the turn? Since he tends to hero call, I'd say value bet this every time, but since we can't decide between c/c and c/f on the river, maybe we should check the river to keep his range wider and hope he either value bets worse (like trip aces) or bluff his missed draws that he might fold to our river bet.
  • reedmylipsreedmylips Posts: 1,145Subscriber
    I'm snapping that off all day. His check-back on the flop looks like standard pot control tourney-donkfish move with a big A. Your check/raise on the turn looks to him like "I got her, she's got an A and I have her dominated!" I think your hand looks like an A to him. I would fist-pump call, then puke if he showed my a better hand.
  • Steve Posts: 149Subscriber
    Decisions where the player overplaying his hand is a consideration are the absolutely worst. I can deal with a situation where the player either has the stone cold nuts or is bluffing, but when I have to consider they're overplaying their hand--GAH! I hate it.

    I'm guessing you're beat, but I just don't know if I'm good enough to fold here.
  • CruelUltimatum Posts: 160Subscriber
    I would take 99 out of his range because he 3bet preflop. When he 3bets, I think we can narrow his range to pocket pairs JJ+ and AK and maaaybe AQ. Maybe tournament players 3bet more preflop, but that's a good starting point. Because of the 3bet preflop, we can also take out AT I think.

    We can discount JJ/QQ/KK based on the action, so that leaves us with AA and some combinations of AK. Let's say he doesn't have AQ, just AK, which I think is a safe assumption.

    There are 8 remaining combinations of AK, and one combination of AA. Obviously AA makes sense the way he plays it. He's not always going to be playing AK this way though. But if he plays AK like this even one out of eight times, this is a profitable call. Is someone going to overplay trip aces, top kicker one out of eight times? Yeah, I think so. AK is consistent with the preflop action (3bet) and someone who likes to trap by checking back TPTK on the flop.

    A3, AT don't make a lot of sense given the action. 3betting with those hands? Not likely. Trapping with it? Also not likely. AK is a much better "trap" hand than A3 or AT, which is more likely to bet the flop. I feel comfortable narrowing his range to AA and AK.

    I don't think we can put him on A3. I assume if he was 3betting THAT wide, you would have noticed and said something in your initial analysis of villain ("villain has been 3betting a lot in position" or whatever).

    In the end, I think this is a call. If he has AA, that sucks.
  • The Clubber Posts: 110Member
    CruelUltimatum said

    I would take 99 out of his range because he 3bet preflop. When he 3bets, I think we can narrow his range to pocket pairs JJ+ and AK and maaaybe AQ. Maybe tournament players 3bet more preflop, but that's a good starting point. Because of the 3bet preflop, we can also take out AT I think.
    .
    I play a lot of tournaments and disagree strongly with this initial assumption. A young tournament player is 3 betting very wide in position. They often 3 bet weak aces hoping to pick up the pot. They like the weak ace because it reduces the chances someone else has pocket aces by half.
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    I would be absolutely, terribly, miserable right now if I ended up folding this hand, which I was leaning towards.

    I made the call because I thought there was a possibility he might be donk shoving AK for value or even spazzing out as a bluff if he thought I was on a turn semi-bluff for some reason.

    He had 99 and berated me for slowrolling him by taking such a long time to call. Lately I've been getting 3-bet by hands that I've been excluding from villains' river ranges rather frequently. I might have to include all playable hands in villains' ranges when I get 3-bet from now on.
  • STL_Bob Posts: 26Subscriber
    The Clubber said
    If there's a hand to nominate for podcast discussion I think this is my #1 candidate. Interesting decisions on all streets.
    I would also love to see this hand discussed on podcast. Good post Claire! thumb
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 205Subscriber
    Claire said

    I would be absolutely, terribly, miserable right now if I ended up folding this hand, which I was leaning towards.

    I made the call because I thought there was a possibility he might be donk shoving AK for value or even spazzing out as a bluff if he thought I was on a turn semi-bluff for some reason.

    He had 99 and berated me for slowrolling him by taking such a long time to call. Lately I've been getting 3-bet by hands that I've been excluding from villains' river ranges rather frequently. I might have to include all playable hands in villains' ranges when I get 3-bet from now on.
    Ahh! Lol. 99 was always a possibility but i dismissed it as the most likely because of your description of his Hollywood act on the river and because he had to put you on a better full house. I guess i just gave him more credit than i should have. Or less, he really did put you in a gross spot and you kinda did eliminate Aces from your range by checking the board twice. Still, if he turned his Fh into a bluff than the Hollywood act didn't help his case. I lean towards plain old bad play. Nice call Claire.
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