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Awkward spot with QQ - 10/10

pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
edited February 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
UTG (~$1700) is often a passive player. He tends to like to x/c a lot with top pair type hands.
UTG+1 (~3k) is a pretty solid pro, capable of making big moves in spots.
CO (~5k) is another pro. Can make big moves and be spewy, but generally tries to wait for a big hand to get a lot of chips in.
BTN (~2k) is too aggro in spots.
Hero - SB (~2100) reg, think I’m perceived as a good player, though maybe too loose in spots.
BB - (3k) MAWG reg

Preflop:
UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, CO raises to $70, BTN calls...
Hero in SB sees QQ. This is generally a clear-cut 3bet, but CO’s raise is bigger than normal (i’d expect most of his opens to be $40-$50 after limpers, maybe $60 here after two limpers), and I’m expecting a big pair a ton knowing that he tends to size up with them. I also am worried that CO will 4bet AK, so it’s not such an easy 3bet/fold spot, but not a spot I really want to gii pre either.
Furthermore, I think BTN will have a fairly strong range when he flats the 7x raise (but certainly not KK+, and probably not AK).

Hero elects to call. Thoughts?

BB calls. UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

I think all of these players will show up with a lot of SCs, suited broadways, small to medium pocket pairs, Axs type hands. Though UTG+1 probably opens a lot of these hands.

Flop goes 6way ($420)
2c5d6d

FWIW, Hero has Qd.

Everybody including CO check, and BTN bets $350.

I think CO may choose to check his entire range on this board with this many players, so I am still not convinced he doesn’t have JJ+ and is trying to prevent a x/r. However, I feel like I’m well ahead of BTN’s range, which I think will be a lot of pocket pairs, some draws, and maybe some random stabs with overcards.

Any merit to raising here?
Would have anybody preferred a lead on flop?
Are we ok with my thinking preflop?
Tagged:

Comments

  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    Still have to 3! preflop. This is a less desirable guessing game with a really awkward SPR and bad relative and absolute position.
    Your bet sizing read is between $60 and $70 and this is a drastic exploit based on that information.

    A raise on flop would be fine here with a larger SPR but we are in a bad spot. We could click it here to isolate and decide if button jams. Its annoying to even think about from SB -- 3! preflop !!!! Gonna get it in on a lot of turns if things proceed calmly on flop.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,037Subscriber
    Yeah, even with that sizing I think we need to 3! Pre for straight value in a great squeeze spot. I understand some of the hesitancy around his raise size, but we're leaving too much value on the table not raising here.

    As played, I'm liking a small checkraise on the flop for value. There are a lot of semibluffs in your range, so you should be able to get tons of value, plus protect your stack should craziness ensue behind...
  • Acidhauss Posts: 291Subscriber
    I would still 3bet preflop.

    As played I dont think I would raise the flop versus this sizing; not only is it a very large betsize multiway, but you have 4-5 uncapped ranges behind you that can feasibly have a bunch of sets, two pair and strong combo draws that you're flipping with.




    by 1CycleV
  • Fletch23 Posts: 115Subscriber
    One of the obvious benefits of a 3! Is you probably knock out the BB and the two limpers. Better to play a 3-way pot OOP than a 5-6 way pot.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    100% 3bet. after all it's COvsBUvsBlinds. sure with sizing "read" you can drop some combos but honestly I don't understand why you think that sizing is super strong. it's mostly a medium hand in my experience where he doesn't want too many callers such as 88-JJ or AJo,KQo. I don't think it's KK+ too often and I don't necessarily think we have to fold vs a 4bet. that's highly dependend on general dynamics and history with that specific player but in many cases it's reasonable to gii for 200bb COvsBlinds reg vs reg.

    As played, flop is super annoying. if we call, we will face tough turn and river decisions and we invite the limpers to come along as well. if we raise, and get reraised by either player we probably have to fold. if we get called we have to fade a lot of bad runouts and we more or less only bet for protection on blanks and check/fold on flushcards I guess.
    pretty hard to put myself in a spot I am never in, but I guess lead/folding or lead/call decide flop is an option as well. I know I use "guess" very often but it's just the nature of multiway pots which haven't really been solved yet. 100% sure it's a 3bet pre though.

    PS: the flatcaller makes me want to 3bet this hand even more. it's pretty obvious this hand will go 5way almost always once you call and QQ really sucks in such a spot OOP
  • justfourfun Posts: 191Subscriber
    I like the preflop flat. A 3! Is clearly a fine option but so is a flat. So much $ on the table all six players are fairly deep giving you a chance to win a huge pot with a relatively small initial investment especially relative to your QQ holding. The BB, UTG and UTG +1 will add $180 to this pot without any 4! Risk. A 3! Will likely bring two or three way action from CO and BTN that also risks a 4! Plus, its a 4! To what looks like a squeeze by you. And it seems you have a specific and concerning read on the CO. OTF seems like an ideal situation to flat and see how the field responds.
  • deadinaditchdeadinaditch Posts: 226Subscriber
    justfourfun said:
    I like the preflop flat. A 3! Is clearly a fine option but so is a flat. So much $ on the table all six players are fairly deep giving you a chance to win a huge pot with a relatively small initial investment especially relative to your QQ holding. The BB, UTG and UTG +1 will add $180 to this pot without any 4! Risk. A 3! Will likely bring two or three way action from CO and BTN that also risks a 4! Plus, its a 4! To what looks like a squeeze by you. And it seems you have a specific and concerning read on the CO. OTF seems like an ideal situation to flat and see how the field responds.
    Yeah, but now you're basically set mining with QQ making them no better than deuces. At least with deuces their are alot of overpairs which might pay off when you make you're hand. With queens you only have KK-AA. This is a tough spot but I think a 3! is the best play. I know you should never raise to "see where you're at" but none the less, if CO doesn't 4! you'll have a pretty good idea.

    Now the question is, what size to 3! Here's where my game gets a little shaky. My gut instinct is to bet small $150-$170 and fold to a re-shove. Does this look to squeezy? Are we just inviting a resteal?

  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    Thanks for the responses all. Definitely understand everyone wanting to 3bet pre. Still, I’ve played with CO enough to know that he’s got a very strong hand so so often with that sizing.

    Results of hand...

    Once BTN bet, I still felt like CO was very interested in the hand. I imagined myself flatting, it folding to CO flatting as well, and knowing I was dead. However, there was a little bit of history with BTN where I thought I might be able to get him to call off with a smaller overpair if I raised (and possibly flip vs a FD or whatever).

    So I raised to $1000 hoping it would fold back around to BTN (trying to get CO to fold KK-AA in case my read was right). UTG pretty quickly goes all in for $1650 and the rest of the field folds. I felt like most of UTG’s range was sets, but also felt I had to go with it for the few combos of hands like A4s that would shove. I obviously messed up my sizing - I would’ve folded if I made it like 800 and he shoved over top. I called. UTG had 66 and I lost... After the hand, UTG+1 said he hero folded 55 (middle set), CO said he had AA, and BTN said he had 88 - no reason for anybody to lie here.
  • maphacks Posts: 2,009Subscriber
    so CO always has nuts because he raises an amateurs utg limp and UTG+1 pro does not raise but overlimp. how can CO be a good pro if he only has nuts when he makes it 7bb after that action? I think you are too resultsoriented here.

  • justfourfun Posts: 191Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    Pocket I think you are playing hold em at a high level to have a specific concern about the CO there. Reminds me of the attached hand I played. If I post this hand on the forums everyone would agree that my jam shove (I am Calvo) with KK is technically correct -right? Just a cooler, right? No, I know better and I shoulda/coulda folded. It took me forever to jam shove there and I never tank. At that point I had been playing for 9 hours with the BB holding AA. Everything about his 3! Was telling me AA - I could read it. I wasn’t tanking so much because of the KK 4 bet I was facing - but that also concerned me. I had the BB on AA for 5 minor hard to describe reasons. Throw into the mix my concern over a four bet and I should be folding there right?
  • pocketzeroes Posts: 174Subscriber
    maphacks said:
    so CO always has nuts because he raises an amateurs utg limp and UTG+1 pro does not raise but overlimp. how can CO be a good pro if he only has nuts when he makes it 7bb after that action? I think you are too resultsoriented here.

    Of course he doesn’t “always” have AA (at least I don’t think he does). But I did think at the time that his range was strong enough so that if I 3bet QQ I’d be value-owning myself a lot/having to fold to a 4bet more than I’d like. I guess it comes down to the question of how strong a range does CO need to have for 3betting QQ to become unprofitable? Certainly CO’s range can be wider than just KK-AA for this to be the case.

    However, I’m not entirely sure I was right. Just stating my thought process at the time.

    And also, FWIW, CO has mostly played 2/5 (and this is the game I’ve played most with him over several years). He’s good at playing an unbalanced game against rec players who won’t really notice that he increases his sizing in a lot of spots with the stronger parts of his range.
  • DrSpace Posts: 716Subscriber
    edited February 2018
    pocketzeroes said:
    Thanks for the responses all. Definitely understand everyone wanting to 3bet pre. Still, I’ve played with CO enough to know that he’s got a very strong hand so so often with that sizing.

    Results of hand...

    Once BTN bet, I still felt like CO was very interested in the hand. I imagined myself flatting, it folding to CO flatting as well, and knowing I was dead. However, there was a little bit of history with BTN where I thought I might be able to get him to call off with a smaller overpair if I raised (and possibly flip vs a FD or whatever).

    So I raised to $1000 hoping it would fold back around to BTN (trying to get CO to fold KK-AA in case my read was right). UTG pretty quickly goes all in for $1650 and the rest of the field folds. I felt like most of UTG’s range was sets, but also felt I had to go with it for the few combos of hands like A4s that would shove. I obviously messed up my sizing - I would’ve folded if I made it like 800 and he shoved over top. I called. UTG had 66 and I lost... After the hand, UTG+1 said he hero folded 55 (middle set), CO said he had AA, and BTN said he had 88 - no reason for anybody to lie here.
    So the read that he always has a hand better than the third best hand in NLH made it so you managed to get a couple hundred big blinds in drawing worse than QQ vs AA. This is a disaster. Think of 20 common flops and how things will play out. You won't like many without a Q. If you strictly want to set mine and otherwise play extremely cautiously post flop that is reasonable.
    Otherwise, I think folding preflop is similar to flatting here in EV.

    Take note that these folks limp small pairs up to 66 EARLY POSITION too.

    These ranges are just to get a feeling but note you are OOP with only marginal net positive equity -- poor position means you won't realize all of it and stack depth gives you significant RIO.

    AA,AxKy,KK 34.4407% 34.3093% 0.3995% 205856 2397
    QQ 25.0523% 24.9227% 0.3960% 149536 2376
    77-22 13.7797% 13.6697% 0.3568% 82018 2141
    77-22 13.8304% 13.7237% 0.3502% 82342 2101
    AxQx-Ax2x,AxJy,AxTy,... 12.8968% 12.6342% 0.6620% 75805 3972

    So even if your read is perfect prelflop we are trading one crappy preflop problem for a worse crappy multiway problem post flop .
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