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Raised on the flop in 3 bet pot with AA, Aria $2/5 $1k cap

Sonny Posts: 390Subscriber
edited September 2018 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning
Aria $2/5 $1k cap game

Hero is in SB with A A with $950
UTG+1, good player, opens to $15
Folds to button, splashy player, who flats $15. He has us covered with about $1100 total. So we're covered but not by a lot.
Hero 3 bets to $55. I 3 bet on the small side to target the button to call. I think the UTG+1 player knows me well enough to know that I'm not raising his early position open with a less than premium hand and is probably going to fold to any 3 bet from me.
UTG+1 folds
Button calls
Pot $125

Flop
J 5 4

Hero leads for $70 into $125
Button now raises to $170
What do we do here, and why?

I think this Button is going to be 3 betting JJ preflop a lot of the time, so the hands that beat us are pocket 5's and 4's for sets and 54 suited for two pair. Also I obviously think that if hes 3 betting JJ, than hes also 3 betting QQ+ so I don't think he's overplaying an overpair.
He can have many draws here, and pair+ draws here also. Since we don't have the Ace of Diamonds he can be betting the nut flush draw, even possibly A J...

So I think all options are avalible...

Fold - We're beat maybe? Who raises the pre flop 3 bettor on the flop?

Call - We get to see what comes on the turn and can play from there, continuing on favorable runouts and shutting down on bad

Raise/fold - If we 3 bet the flop then he comes back over the top, thats really strong.

Raise/call off - Even if he does come back over the top he could just as easily be doing it with his combo draws as made hands, and we'd be possibly folding the best hand so we should call a shove? If he was nutted and had us beat I doubt he'd shove the flop though, I've been playing fairly tight...

Whats the plan and why?

My first thought was to just fold, he's raising the tight player who 3 bet pre flop out of position. Then when I ranged him on a hand thats beating me, I realized its a very narrow range. So I thought "well I'll 3 bet and if he shoves its definately a fold". But then I also thought that if I am ahead and get jammed on hes very possibly on a combo draw of some kind and might just get it in. Gettng it in is only like $500 more and a 4 bet post flop puts a ton of pressure on Aces or Kings, and generates a lot of fold equity in a bloated pot...

Comments

  • JLBJ Posts: 172Subscriber
    Tough spot, all opponent-dependent. You say he is splashy, but does that apply post-flop, or just pre? Is he the kind of player who would raise KJ here to “see where he’s at”?

    Like you said, his value range is narrow. I don’t know if it’s the right play, but my default would be to call and play the turn.
  • hustlin Posts: 316Subscriber
    Yah this is always a weird spots with over pairs here.
    As played their is more merit to find a way to get your money in here than say a TAG. since villain is splashier he can do this with a wider range.

    Its usually not advised to get it in with 200bbs with just an overpair

    I generally with 200bb's would C/C here. depending on turn. I may C/C or X/R.
    by river I usually just X/C or X/F depending on board texture and reads.
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,132Subscriber
    I think it's player dependent, and we think V is donkish we just have to 3bet this flop.
    - We don't have A
    - The flop suit distribution is such that J x is possible
    - We not loosing to much basically 9 combos total
    - This flop raise sizing seems weak ...unless he's hand reading well and realizes this is a 3bet pot and we should be drawing almost dead vs his set, etc., but that goes back to my original point - do we think he's donkish or not?? If we do - I think that's giving V too much credit.

    So I think we should click it up to like 350 and if he ships - you have to decide if he's the type that's gonna go buck wild with TP+FD type of a hand (probably have to to call off :frown: )

    Note: I don't have much experience with Vegas games though, so if you tell me that games are super nitty and nobody would ever raise this flop with Jx in 3bet pot - ok...
  • Oback2 Posts: 208Subscriber
    edited September 2018
    3bet larger pre, $70-75. Youre going to be generally merged 3b from the sb as a squeeze, but Start incorporating bluffs even vs EP open, especially if your indicating here that Villian is over folding to 3b.

    Against a good player OTB I’d be x’ing aces at an extremely high frequency.

    Against a splashy rec, cbetting is fine and the better play.

    Folding this flop would be awful, and3betting this flop would be terrible, the only play is to call.
  • Sonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    edited September 2018
    Clock said:
    Note: I don't have much experience with Vegas games though, so if you tell me that games are super nitty and nobody would ever raise this flop with Jx in 3bet pot - ok...
    I was thinking about something like this after I made the post. I think a lot of the players in Vegas are actually fairly good, but somewhat nitty. This player was obviously an out of towner and not a reg.
    In this configuration I could easily be continuation betting A K or some other Ace highs that missed. Now if he called with something like 10 J I could see him raising for protection himself. So I don't think its out of the question that he might be betting a Jack here. Any card higher than a Jack and he'd have to slow way down. Now if he has AJ, KJ or QJ thats kind of a different story. I also could be betting something like A Q and a single paired Jack would probably bet to protect against a hand like that also. So after some thought, I do think its completely possible he is betting a Jack.

    Now that adds just another wrinkle. Do we just call and let him hang himself if I do put him on a single paired Jack?
  • ClockClock Posts: 1,132Subscriber
    edited September 2018
    Sonny said:
    [quote="Clock;113389"]Note: I don't have much experience with Vegas games though, so if you tell me that games are super nitty and nobody would ever raise this flop with Jx in 3bet pot - ok...


    .....

    I was thinking about something like this after I made the post. I think a lot of the players in Vegas are actually fairly good, but somewhat nitty. This player was obviously an out of towner and not a reg.
    In this configuration I could easily be continuation betting A K or some other Ace highs that missed. Now if he called with something like 10 J I could see him raising for protection himself. So I don't think its out of the question that he might be betting a Jack here. Any card higher than a Jack and he'd have to slow way down. Now if he has AJ, KJ or QJ thats kind of a different story. I also could be betting something like A Q and a single paired Jack would probably bet to protect against a hand like that also. So after some thought, I do think its completely possible he is betting a Jack.

    Well then I think you have to 3bet this flop.
    Assuming a typical splashy rec - I think a lot of them would "put you on AK" and if you just click it back might have trouble folding TP (obv never ever fold TP+FD, NFD or any combo draw)

    Click it to 350 and when he calls, put will be 825 with just ~550 left.
    You can bet stupid small on the turn (250-300) and he might feel that he's committed with a Jx
  • Sonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    @clock and everyone else thanks for your replies...

    I did actually wind up 3 betting to $420 total. I chose that sizing because if he is on a draw I want him to be the one making a mistake by not getting a very good price to call with his draws. Now if he is on a draw do I want the call? Sure, but I also don't mind just taking it down. I also thought betting any smaller might lead him to shove and not just call, and at the time, I thought the spot was a 3 bet/fold. The more I think about it now though, I think once I 3 bet and range him on mostly draws or single paired Jacks I probably have to call a shove.

    I really don't like flatting his $170 because if he is on a draw and a Jack, Diamond, 6 or 3 comes off, I'm probably just check/folding. Thats could be as many as 20 cards, depending on what he has. I generally think it's, for lack of a better word, "dumb" to just let them get there for free.

    I thought the reraise on the flop was always the beat play, but my biggest question was, and still is, what if he shoves? Through discussing it here I think calling the shove is the best option, if its not then I shouldn't 3 bet. In game however I was pretty convinced I should fold if he shoves.

  • Oback2 Posts: 208Subscriber
    3betting this flop is really really bad.
  • Sonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    Oback2 said:
    3betting this flop is really really bad.
    Ok, why? I felt like it was the best option as I thought I had the best hand. I want to protect my equity and possibly get worse to call. However, if I happen to take it down on the flop, I think thats just fine.
    I would really like to know your opinion as to why 3 betting this flop is bad.
    Im not attacking in anyway btw, just courious. Personally I think just calling is option I would choose last, but I would like to hear your thought process.

    As it was he folded to my 3 bet and I profited over 40BB with one pair without seeing a turn.

  • CycleV Posts: 1,144Subscriber
    His raise isn't getting anyone with a made hand to fold, so it probably isn't a semibluff, nor is it building much of a pot with a hand like 54s. I'd look at it as some kind of feeler bet, and read him as QJ- and lower PP, occasionally total air. I could see clicking it back to $300ish, or just calling and leading most turns.
  • hustlin Posts: 316Subscriber
    Like the raise. Based on what u told about the villain this is the best choice. Sizing is fine.
    When u 3bet u almosf always have to call off.

    Jx dd makes up large portion of range . So u gta call it off.
    Sonny said:
    @clock and everyone else thanks for your replies...

    I did actually wind up 3 betting to $420 total. I chose that sizing because if he is on a draw I want him to be the one making a mistake by not getting a very good price to call with his draws. Now if he is on a draw do I want the call? Sure, but I also don't mind just taking it down. I also thought betting any smaller might lead him to shove and not just call, and at the time, I thought the spot was a 3 bet/fold. The more I think about it now though, I think once I 3 bet and range him on mostly draws or single paired Jacks I probably have to call a shove.

    I really don't like flatting his $170 because if he is on a draw and a Jack, Diamond, 6 or 3 comes off, I'm probably just check/folding. Thats could be as many as 20 cards, depending on what he has. I generally think it's, for lack of a better word, "dumb" to just let them get there for free.

    I thought the reraise on the flop was always the beat play, but my biggest question was, and still is, what if he shoves? Through discussing it here I think calling the shove is the best option, if its not then I shouldn't 3 bet. In game however I was pretty convinced I should fold if he shoves.

  • citrex Posts: 9Subscriber
    Hello,

    If we consider a range of

    55-44,54s,AdQd,KdQd,AdJd,KdJd,QdJd,AdTd,KdTd,JdTd,Ad9d,Jd9d,8d7d,7d6d

    we would have a little less than 40% equity against it.

    Even if we consider all the Adxd we would have around 42% equity.

    If we are willing to raise and then call a shove, wouldn't be better to just call down and give him space to overplay/bluff himself?

    I am not seeing the Villain to fold any combo draw (pair + FD, gutshot + FD, OESD + FD, 2 overcards + FD).

    It is a 3bet pot so our hero can just have a Set of Jacks, Overpair, or AdKd/Qd or KdQd when he raises. This range against the first range I gave to Villain we have 42% equity against the villain range.

    Wouldn't be better to just call on the flop?
    788 x 59 - 21K
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