Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning
Aria $2/5 $1k cap game
Hero is in SB with A♥ A♣ with $950
UTG+1, good player, opens to $15
Folds to button, splashy player, who flats $15. He has us covered with about $1100 total. So we're covered but not by a lot.
Hero 3 bets to $55. I 3 bet on the small side to target the button to call. I think the UTG+1 player knows me well enough to know that I'm not raising his early position open with a less than premium hand and is probably going to fold to any 3 bet from me.
J♠ 5♦ 4♦
Hero leads for $70 into $125
Button now raises to $170
What do we do here, and why?
I think this Button is going to be 3 betting JJ preflop a lot of the time, so the hands that beat us are pocket 5's and 4's for sets and 54 suited for two pair. Also I obviously think that if hes 3 betting JJ, than hes also 3 betting QQ+ so I don't think he's overplaying an overpair.
He can have many draws here, and pair+ draws here also. Since we don't have the Ace of Diamonds he can be betting the nut flush draw, even possibly A♦ J♦...
So I think all options are avalible...
Fold - We're beat maybe? Who raises the pre flop 3 bettor on the flop?
Call - We get to see what comes on the turn and can play from there, continuing on favorable runouts and shutting down on bad
Raise/fold - If we 3 bet the flop then he comes back over the top, thats really strong.
Raise/call off - Even if he does come back over the top he could just as easily be doing it with his combo draws as made hands, and we'd be possibly folding the best hand so we should call a shove? If he was nutted and had us beat I doubt he'd shove the flop though, I've been playing fairly tight...
Whats the plan and why?
My first thought was to just fold, he's raising the tight player who 3 bet pre flop out of position. Then when I ranged him on a hand thats beating me, I realized its a very narrow range. So I thought "well I'll 3 bet and if he shoves its definately a fold". But then I also thought that if I am ahead and get jammed on hes very possibly on a combo draw of some kind and might just get it in. Gettng it in is only like $500 more and a 4 bet post flop puts a ton of pressure on Aces or Kings, and generates a lot of fold equity in a bloated pot...