Tuesday Night/Wednesday Morning
Aria $2/5 $1k cap game
Hero is in SB with A♥ A♣ with $950
UTG+1, good player, opens to $15
Folds to button, splashy player, who flats $15. He has us covered with about $1100 total. So we're covered but not by a lot.
Hero 3 bets to $55. I 3 bet on the small side to target the button to call. I think the UTG+1 player knows me well enough to know that I'm not raising his early position open with a less than premium hand and is probably going to fold to any 3 bet from me.
UTG+1 folds
Button calls
Pot $125
Flop
J♠ 5♦ 4♦
Hero leads for $70 into $125
Button now raises to $170
What do we do here, and why?
I think this Button is going to be 3 betting JJ preflop a lot of the time, so the hands that beat us are pocket 5's and 4's for sets and 54 suited for two pair. Also I obviously think that if hes 3 betting JJ, than hes also 3 betting QQ+ so I don't think he's overplaying an overpair.
He can have many draws here, and pair+ draws here also. Since we don't have the Ace of Diamonds he can be betting the nut flush draw, even possibly A♦ J♦...
So I think all options are avalible...
Fold - We're beat maybe? Who raises the pre flop 3 bettor on the flop?
Call - We get to see what comes on the turn and can play from there, continuing on favorable runouts and shutting down on bad
Raise/fold - If we 3 bet the flop then he comes back over the top, thats really strong.
Raise/call off - Even if he does come back over the top he could just as easily be doing it with his combo draws as made hands, and we'd be possibly folding the best hand so we should call a shove? If he was nutted and had us beat I doubt he'd shove the flop though, I've been playing fairly tight...
Whats the plan and why?
My first thought was to just fold, he's raising the tight player who 3 bet pre flop out of position. Then when I ranged him on a hand thats beating me, I realized its a very narrow range. So I thought "well I'll 3 bet and if he shoves its definately a fold". But then I also thought that if I am ahead and get jammed on hes very possibly on a combo draw of some kind and might just get it in. Gettng it in is only like $500 more and a 4 bet post flop puts a ton of pressure on Aces or Kings, and generates a lot of fold equity in a bloated pot...
Comments
Like you said, his value range is narrow. I don’t know if it’s the right play, but my default would be to call and play the turn.
As played their is more merit to find a way to get your money in here than say a TAG. since villain is splashier he can do this with a wider range.
Its usually not advised to get it in with 200bbs with just an overpair
I generally with 200bb's would C/C here. depending on turn. I may C/C or X/R.
by river I usually just X/C or X/F depending on board texture and reads.
- We don't have A♦
- The flop suit distribution is such that J♦ x♦ is possible
- We not loosing to much basically 9 combos total
- This flop raise sizing seems weak ...unless he's hand reading well and realizes this is a 3bet pot and we should be drawing almost dead vs his set, etc., but that goes back to my original point - do we think he's donkish or not?? If we do - I think that's giving V too much credit.
So I think we should click it up to like 350 and if he ships - you have to decide if he's the type that's gonna go buck wild with TP+FD type of a hand (probably have to to call off :frown: )
Note: I don't have much experience with Vegas games though, so if you tell me that games are super nitty and nobody would ever raise this flop with Jx in 3bet pot - ok...
Against a good player OTB I’d be x’ing aces at an extremely high frequency.
Against a splashy rec, cbetting is fine and the better play.
Folding this flop would be awful, and3betting this flop would be terrible, the only play is to call.
In this configuration I could easily be continuation betting A♠ K♠ or some other Ace highs that missed. Now if he called with something like 10♥ J♥ I could see him raising for protection himself. So I don't think its out of the question that he might be betting a Jack here. Any card higher than a Jack and he'd have to slow way down. Now if he has AJ, KJ or QJ thats kind of a different story. I also could be betting something like A♦ Q♦ and a single paired Jack would probably bet to protect against a hand like that also. So after some thought, I do think its completely possible he is betting a Jack.
Now that adds just another wrinkle. Do we just call and let him hang himself if I do put him on a single paired Jack?
Assuming a typical splashy rec - I think a lot of them would "put you on AK" and if you just click it back might have trouble folding TP (obv never ever fold TP+FD, NFD or any combo draw)
Click it to 350 and when he calls, put will be 825 with just ~550 left.
You can bet stupid small on the turn (250-300) and he might feel that he's committed with a Jx
I did actually wind up 3 betting to $420 total. I chose that sizing because if he is on a draw I want him to be the one making a mistake by not getting a very good price to call with his draws. Now if he is on a draw do I want the call? Sure, but I also don't mind just taking it down. I also thought betting any smaller might lead him to shove and not just call, and at the time, I thought the spot was a 3 bet/fold. The more I think about it now though, I think once I 3 bet and range him on mostly draws or single paired Jacks I probably have to call a shove.
I really don't like flatting his $170 because if he is on a draw and a Jack, Diamond, 6 or 3 comes off, I'm probably just check/folding. Thats could be as many as 20 cards, depending on what he has. I generally think it's, for lack of a better word, "dumb" to just let them get there for free.
I thought the reraise on the flop was always the beat play, but my biggest question was, and still is, what if he shoves? Through discussing it here I think calling the shove is the best option, if its not then I shouldn't 3 bet. In game however I was pretty convinced I should fold if he shoves.
I would really like to know your opinion as to why 3 betting this flop is bad.
Im not attacking in anyway btw, just courious. Personally I think just calling is option I would choose last, but I would like to hear your thought process.
As it was he folded to my 3 bet and I profited over 40BB with one pair without seeing a turn.
When u 3bet u almosf always have to call off.
Jx dd makes up large portion of range . So u gta call it off.
If we consider a range of
55-44,54s,AdQd,KdQd,AdJd,KdJd,QdJd,AdTd,KdTd,JdTd,Ad9d,Jd9d,8d7d,7d6d
we would have a little less than 40% equity against it.
Even if we consider all the Adxd we would have around 42% equity.
If we are willing to raise and then call a shove, wouldn't be better to just call down and give him space to overplay/bluff himself?
I am not seeing the Villain to fold any combo draw (pair + FD, gutshot + FD, OESD + FD, 2 overcards + FD).
It is a 3bet pot so our hero can just have a Set of Jacks, Overpair, or AdKd/Qd or KdQd when he raises. This range against the first range I gave to Villain we have 42% equity against the villain range.
Wouldn't be better to just call on the flop?