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Thinking lag overbet turn on draw heavy board

Been playing about an hour in 1/2 game, me and villian are both somewhat table captians. Villians gf is at the table, was a new game started up. Not, a ton of info, he is in the 1 she is in the 8, they have played a lot of hands together with opponents in the middle, she has shown down KhQh 3bet vs my CO raise I hero’d her down for a buy in. He is playing a good to on the line of overly LAG, but the table is playing tight so I liked his play style. He was straddling from late positions, raising a lot of his straddles, limp calling raises pre, 3 betting small, open entering 3-3.5x raises I qualified him as a thinking player.

There is some irony in this hand bc the last couple days I have been wanting to put overbetting into my turn range a lot more, have had a ton of success doing it on rivers with merged ranges of hands.

Effective stack sizes are Villian 500 Hero covers Villian GF $140

Villian opens to $6 utg +1
Hero CO flats QdJh (8 handed)
SB (Villian GF) flats
Check to Hero
Hero bets 12
Villian GF calls
Villan Calls

Turn Qs
Gf checks
Villian leads for 80 into like 52

My first instinct went to asking myself if he is doing this with a Td in his hand, I felt like that is probably the best card to bluff with in this spot because you block so many combos of the nuts, and nut draws. ATdd KTdd T8dd, I took probably 30-40 seconds and decided I don’t think I can flat, risk his girlfriend shoving and him rejamming me out of the pot if they are chopping winnings. They had been texting a ton back and forth (not during hands), but I def didn’t want to get in between them in pots.

I thought if I flat and she folds he was sizing it up to jam river as well, he at least has a T, I think T8s and KTs are in his flop checking range as well, however I just didn’t know if he would overbet turn with his KT hands. Thoughts?

I thought for 30-40 seconds and got to a spot where I was either going to bomb it in or fold, ended up folding, it ate at me pretty good I had to quit the session shortly after, I couldn’t get over the hand mentally and wasn’t going to play optimal against him after.

I fold to her, my J flipped up but dealer covered it, when it got to his girlfriend he said “I’ll show if you fold” which struck me as a bit of a fish move, his gf thought for 20 seconds or so and foldedd. I said you have the Td in your hand? he showed AhTd. He asked if I folded QJ and I said yes and he asked his gf if she had me beat and she said yes, but I didn’t believe her. She rips all sets on flop.

If we aren’t folding turn what is the best play?


  • FuzzypupFuzzypup Posts: 2,389Subscriber
    Only hand that beats you is KT and I found that XC overbomb turn really fishy. I also thought is he doing this with TT?

    My larger concern is that they are colluding playing the best hand play. KT is his only strength hand here.

    I would have potted that flop when they both check to me. Clearly you have the best hand or someone is slowplaying T8s. Since T8s is 4 combos generally I want to charge the GSs and SDs as much as possible. It also avoids this situation that you got in. When you bet strong and they XC it means they have some draw or weaker hand. Since the board is 2 draw your strong bet makes them play face up.

  • Jwhoover Posts: 20Subscriber
    I don’t like a pot size bet here as that is hard to balance and allows our opponents to exploit us much easier. If they have gutshots I want to get value. A lot of times a pot sized bet isn’t being called by much that we beat and inflates the pot.
  • Xboblove Posts: 120Member
    edited December 2018
    Your comment that your overbetting on the river with a merged range is curious. You shouldn't be overbeting the river merged, you should be doing this with a polarized range. Merged will not get you paid.
  • Jwhoover Posts: 20Subscriber
    @xboblove I disagree as I have been having a lot of success with it.
  • dpbuckdpbuck Posts: 2,004Subscriber
    From a theory perspective, overbetting should be done with a polarized range, especially in cases where you have the nuts in your range and villain doesn't. The common situation is a board like AKxxx when you are an early position opener and are called by someone in early-to-mid position.

    However, from an exploitative perspective, overbetting can be done with a merged range against weaker competition that aren't able to figure out that you should be polarized in a given spot with that line. Much like we are able to bet two pair for value on four-straights in position because our weaker opponents never see anyone bet anything but a straight or air, we can overbet non-nut value hands in spots where our opposition has inelastic calling ranges.

    Be wary of taking this sizing in an exploitative manner, especially if in a smaller player pool. It won't take long for even the weakest of players to figure this out and punish you for it.

    As for this hand, I'm not a fan of just calling offsuit broadways preflop. I'd rather either 3! or fold. I guess he made it small enough that you can call, but I'd be very wary moving forward, and keep in mind that villain's range can be super-wide. I agree with @fuzzypup that we should be betting larger on this flop. We have an absolute shit-ton of strong hands, medium hands, and draws in this spot, so we are able to bet much larger without being exploited. Additionally, they have all sorts of hands that can call potsized bets.

    Yes, his turn lead is a bit fishy. Going to be really read dependent, and getting a feel for what we think villain does with different parts of his range. He seems to be a bit of a button clicker, relying on aggression to make things happen. We block some of the strong (non-straight) value hands, plus calling the big overbet should freeze all the action. I like a call and evaluate further action.
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