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AKo in HJ: Bet River for Value?

PokerShaman Posts: 71Subscriber
1(on BTN) - 2 - 2, 5-to go(*), no buy-in cap, $5+$2 fixed drop ($1 if no flop)

EP villain, 1200 in stack, opens for 5. Folds to hero (covers) in HJ with AKo. Hero raises to 20, villain calls. 38 in pot after rake.

Flop: AQ6r, with the A

Villain checks, hero bets 20, villain calls. 78 in pot.

Turn 8

Check, bet 75, call. 228 in pot.

River K

Villain checks. Hero . . . ?

(*) This is a really old-school Northern California blind structure. It *should* play like a super-nitty 2-5 because the blinds are so small, except that most players don't understand this at all.
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Comments

  • PokerShaman Posts: 71Subscriber
    In the heat of battle I thought this was a clear value bet. However, running it through Flopzilla afterwards, giving the villain a 30% preflop range that has AA-JJ and AK removed, setting the filters to pass through middle-pair and gutshot-draw combos on the turn, the villain shows up on the river with the range {AQs-A2s, AQo-A8o, QsJs-Qs9s, JTs, JTo, 66}. There are 23 combos that beat us (four flush combos, 16 straights, and three 66 for bottom set). If we are generous and say that the villain will call with AT-AQ, suited or otherwise, we only get 22 combos. So it looks borderline. If we think the villain can call with worse aces than AT we should probably bet, but otherwise we should check behind.
  • JS84 Posts: 31Subscriber
    I don't understand the game. Is the 5-to-go like a bring in? Meaning you can't limp for two, the min bet (or limp) is 5? And if so, can open to bigger than that?
  • neverlearn2 Posts: 2,845Subscriber
    I'm going for value. We lose to 66 here more than flushes IMO
  • BartBart Posts: 5,926AdministratorLeadPro
    Are you sure has has all those JTos combos that he limp calls a raise from up front AND calls the flop?
  • PokerShaman Posts: 71Subscriber
    JS84 said:
    I don't understand the game. Is the 5-to-go like a bring in? Meaning you can't limp for two, the min bet (or limp) is 5? And if so, can open to bigger than that?
    The 5 is a minimum to enter the pot. It isn't precisely "limping," because even opening for the minimum has some fold equity and can, at least theoretically, take down the pot if the blinds fold. But a player can open for any amount they want, from $5 up. (In this came, bets must be in increments of $5, so you can't open for (say) $6 or $9 but you can for $10.)

    It makes sizing a pretty puzzle, because opening for 5 is like a 2.5x open and has a required fold equity of 55% to break even with any two napkins. (It would be 50% except for the dollar drop if no flop is seen.) A $10 open has an RFE of 71%

    At the same time the player pool doesn't really take seriously an open that isn't, like $25 or so (RFE of 86%+ !).
  • PokerShaman Posts: 71Subscriber
    Bart said:
    Are you sure has has all those JTos combos that he limp calls a raise from up front AND calls the flop?
    I am not at all sure, but my sense of the player pool is that, apart from some OMCs and other tight regs, they tend to call when they have any prospect of improving at all, and not think about pot size or implied odds.

    Using the slider in Flopzilla is not the most ideal way to assign a range to a villain, but it is a start.
  • JS84 Posts: 31Subscriber
    PokerShaman said:
    The 5 is a minimum to enter the pot. It isn't precisely "limping," because even opening for the minimum has some fold equity and can, at least theoretically, take down the pot if the blinds fold. But a player can open for any amount they want, from $5 up. (In this came, bets must be in increments of $5, so you can't open for (say) $6 or $9 but you can for $10.)

    It makes sizing a pretty puzzle, because opening for 5 is like a 2.5x open and has a required fold equity of 55% to break even with any two napkins. (It would be 50% except for the dollar drop if no flop is seen.) A $10 open has an RFE of 71%

    At the same time the player pool doesn't really take seriously an open that isn't, like $25 or so (RFE of 86%+ !).
    Okay, thanks for the explanation. Never seen this structure in a NL game before.

    I think as played we have to bet here with top 2. I agree with Bart here, I don't think villain has that JTo too often here. I understand the peel on the flop, and the turn gives him a double gutter, but you bet full pot on turn. I'm not sure how many players are calling a bet that big with JTo.

    Hands that beat you are 66 (although I think this is raised with some frequency on the turn when the second space comes), QXss (QJ-Q9), JTss, and maybe 76ss/65ss. He could have AQ, AJ, maybe AT, as well as KQ and rivering a worse two pair. Combo wise, I think there are more worse hands here than hands that beat you. I bet something like 150-175.
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