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Rec player overvaluing a hand

So im playing 1 3 blinds. 300 eff. This rec player is really bad. You can tell hes very inexperienced by his questions and demeanor as well as how hes playing. Its 7 handed and im in middle position w 2 black 8s. hked to me and i raise to 15 which is standard in thos game w no limps. Rec player calls, btn calls, bb calls. Flop is Qd9c8h. I bet 30. He calls. Everyone else folds. Turn is Kh. I bet 70 and he instantly goes all in. I believe he would do the same w kq since he overvalues his hands. Would you fold? I folded since j10 is the obvious stright thinking he could have that. He had K9 for 2 pr and said he didnt want more free cards. Do you make this call vs this villian?


  • GarlandGarland Posts: 316Subscriber
    edited May 14
    I'd bet 40-45 on the flop with this board.

    As played, it's a pretty easy call as he can have a myriad of 2 pair, most likely turned two pair. As you said he plays pretty bad.

    As a side note, try to recall how much time villain took to call the flop. If he had JT, he already had the nuts on the flop and he's much more likely to think about calling or raising and how much to raise than say one pair hands, which call much quicker. Villains rarely pre-plan when they flop so well. If he called the flop without thinking, I don't think he ever has JT and it's a slam dunk call on the turn.

    Please don't show results before giving time for comments.
  • bubba316999 Posts: 15Member
    If you felt in the moment he's bad enough to do this with 2 pair it becomes a slam dunk call. If you don't think he's that guy it's a fold.

    Their are 36 2 pair combo, 16 straight combo, 9 set combos. It's unlikely he'll have KK but I kept it in there because people do weird things. With all those hands in there you have 60% equity on the turn and you have to call $185 to win $445. EV of +$193 sounds good to me. :)
  • BartBart Posts: 5,926AdministratorLeadPro
    Yeah cant fold sets at this level. He could easily think KQ is the nuts @wildncrazyguy
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