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Thin value 1/3NL Bellagio

MrO Posts: 159Subscriber
edited May 16 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
1/3 NL 300 effective
Hero BTN A♥️4♥️
Laggy euro opens to 12 in MP
CO, Hero, BB call
Flop (45) AJ7 :r: (1 heart)
Euro bets 25
Only hero calls
Not a bad call?
Turn (95) 2
He bets 50
He's been showing down ATC
Should I call and evaluate river?
I call
River (195) 6
He checks what's the play? Too thin to bet? Is anything calling me?

Comments

  • JLBJ Posts: 164Subscriber
    I don’t think anything’s calling you that you beat, and you’re unlikely to move him off a chop.

    I think you played the hand right until that point. Turn is getting thin, but if he’s capable of barreling, you have to call.
    by 1CycleV
  • Chase Posts: 113Subscriber
    edited May 16
    Preflop: Flatting is plus EV, but 3b! at a frequency of 50-100% might be max EV.

    Seems like straightforward calls on flop and turn vs a "laggy euro".

    River is probably too thin to go for value. Your hand looks a lot like AX, and there are basically no missed draws that you can have (unless you turned a BDFD to go along with a gutshot otf). I agree with JLBJ that you're unlikley to get this V off of a chop, even for a large bet size.

    There are times to bet very small like 0.15PSB-0.20PSB in this spot and when you get looked up you'll be good more than 50% of the time, but this probably isn't the right Villain. This V seems less like the type to just shrug and call facing such an obvious value-bet, and more likely the type to attempt a x-r for value otr.
    by 1CycleV
  • MrO Posts: 159Subscriber
    Yeah I over played the hand on the river. He had a tendency to be very turn honest so when he bet the turn I did have alarms go off but forgot about them after he checked the river. Leveled myself again.
    Spoiler:
    I bet small but initially thought check back then I heard @bart in my head saying to bet here. I bet $60 he called with J2s
  • BartBart Posts: 5,887AdministratorLeadPro
    I don't get it.. you win right?

    Besides not 3!ing a guy that is so wide with his opens, you played the hand fine up until the river. If the flop was rainbow I would usually check behind on the river. If there was a flush raw I may bet for value. The board is AJ727 right?
  • MrO Posts: 159Subscriber
    I'm sorry was a typo at the end. The river did not pair the board. I lost to J2 for 2 pair.
  • Sonny Posts: 390Subscriber
    Chase said:
    This V seems less like the type to just shrug and call facing such an obvious value-bet, and more likely the type to attempt a x-r for value otr.
    I try not to say never, but at these stakes river check raises almost never happen.
    If they are a decent player they are betting their value hands because they know the river is getting checked behind so so often.

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