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High Stakes Line Check 3 Bet Pot

BartBart Posts: 5,994AdministratorLeadPro
edited April 2014 in NLHE Strategy Discussion
Commerce last night 6 handed. $5-10 $1500 Cap.

Table has 2 shorter stack rec players one mediocre reg and two 5-10 pros. Unfortunately a conversation has broken out amongst the pros and me regarding CLP.

Effective stacks $2k.

UTG Pro 1 opens to $35. Rec CO calls, I 3 bet to $125 with 4s 5s on BTTN. UTG calls only.

FLOP: 2c 3s 6h

UTG checks. I bet $145. UTG calls.

Turn 8c. UTG bets $245.

What do I do here when I usually flat all one pair types of hands? Ever make it look bluffy? Am I out leveling myself and giving 5-10 pros too much credit?
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Comments

  • TerpHimselfTerpHimself Posts: 307Subscriber
    Correct me if this is wrong, but the pot is $300 pre, 590 after the flop, now bets 245 into 590 leaving Villian with an effective 1165.

    The donk lead on this type of board is very interesting, especially b/c he's laying you about 3/1 on a call. He shouldn't expect you to fold a huge portion of your range, and if you call, effective SPR's would be just over 1 heading to the river.

    If this is bluff, he has to fire big on the river, right? If this is a set, he will value bet. How comfortable are we calling off vs this villain on clubs or paired boards? Do we think that will actually stop him from bluffing, or encourage him? That I don't know.

    What I do know is that if he listens to your podcasts, he knows that even if a Jd falls on the river, and he bets again, then "things have changed". Maybe he feels that this board combined with your very small range of straights and sets is good to move you off of 99+.

    I would flat, expecting a river bet 85% of the time. But if you think the turn donk is him "taking his shot" at the pot and he'll give up on the river, I would try clicking it back on him to see what he does. Any two pair/set hands are going to move in, and maybe 10% of the time he spews off?
  • swollie Posts: 83Subscriber
    It will be very player dependent. But I think it’s a raise most of the time too maybe 750.

    If he has 99-QQ you should only get one more street anyway. The great thing is that to him 45 is a very small part of YOUR range in this spot and should discount your combinations of 45 to 4 (all 45 suited). If he flopped or turned a set you should go for gold. He can only have overpairs, sets or air and maybe AK AQ of clubs.

    How do you think that he will play his air when you flat on the turn?
  • BartBart Posts: 5,994AdministratorLeadPro
    $1485 left after the $245 donk into $590. Thats what makes it a little awkward.
  • DrGambol Posts: 724Subscriber
    I don't think that it matters all that much that you mostly flat your overpairs. You can still have a balanced raising range of your straights, 2 pairs, and semi bluffs. You could raise 54s, 86s, T9cc, 65cc, 76cc, and throw in some one pair bluffs 65s/87s that block sets. So even though your 3 bet value range will not be balanced, you can balance a raising range here with your 3 bet bluffing range.

    The interesting question though is if we raise, and he knows you're tag Bart Hanson, does he consider your range capped? Does he think you can't have better than AA when you raise? Do we even need to bluff raise ever here? I guess it depends on how good he is and whether or not he thinks our range can have some 3 bet bluffs that connect with this type of board.
  • daniel9861 Posts: 207Subscriber
    Flatting and raising both look strong against TT-QQ type hands so I would go for gold and hope he has 2p+ and try to get the money in now against those hands because there are lots of action killers on the river like a club, 4, or 5. The only air he really has are semi bluffs that turned the backdoor draw so raising also gets value from that and even if he somehow has total air he'll shut it down on the river because of what our hand looks like. For sizing I would go biggish and make it look like a combo draw.
  • ThehammahThehammah Posts: 7,090Subscriber
    You would know this guy better than any of us but if he is a pro I think he is pretty strong here when he leads on the turn. What would be your range when you do this? two pair, sets, bluffs?

    Does he know what clp is? If so I am more inclined to play the way you would an overpair since it keeps his bluffs or draws in the pot. If you dont think he has many bluffs then why not raise?

    ww
  • DavidTuchman Posts: 789Pro
    gut instinct...don't like calling almost ever.

    think maybe raise smallish...make it look like you have a showdownish type of hand and you're looking to go to showdown? raise turn and check back river type of play...will he buy that?

    Just think his range is capped. He knows that. You know that. He knows you know that. Think he might level himself into a call. This is the exact type of bullshit lead out after checking that you'd attack.

    also think he could have AKcc type of hand...
  • UntreatableFPS Posts: 1,004Subscriber
    Maybe if you go all-in, he'll level himself into thinking you're on a semi-bluff with some kind of flush draw and two overs. Because this board isn't supposed to hit your 3bet range. I think he calls with two pair or AA against a ship
  • floppedawheel Posts: 1,063Subscriber
    strange spot for sure. how much was he participating in the CLP talk? how well does he know you otherwise? if he were playing optimally against you, when he has a set, he'd probably go for a C/R on the turn because you would almost never be checking back an overpair and would likely keep driving a big draw. or maybe he'd even allow you to go for super thin on the river and go for a C/R then. for that reason, his hand looks a lot like TT-QQ and a raise on the turn might fold him out.

    does he value bet thin? if so, a call is probably in order on the turn. then assess the river, calling most cards and going for value when checked to.

    but this assumes that he's adjusting to you properly.

    in a vacuum, this would be an easy raise to 750-800 on the turn, stack sizes be damned.

    just curious -- how did the CLP talk come up and how do you normally handle it?
  • chilidog Posts: 2,427Subscriber
    I like raise to $625 on the turn and if he checks river then bet of $875 on river. Bart - u have said in the past (and I think it's true) that villains are more likely to call when the bet is not all in. Maybe the meta considerations with this pro make that not the case , but we don't know without knowledge of history / level of competence of the villain. The $245 donk feels like he could be leading with something like pair+FD or pair+SD.
  • OminousCowOminousCow Posts: 702Subscriber
    I agree with what other folks have written. You want to be raising here to get in stacks and if you are to have a raising range, the nut straight clearly belongs in it.

    I'm not sure how strong or weak his range is supposed to be here (does he play 99 this way? does he play sets this way?, does he play 5 6 this way? Does he play A Q this way?), so I think that I would go with a turn raising range of all your turned flush draws, any sets you have (won't be many if any), any two pair you have, and maybe a few of your overpairs (AA probably).

    Appropriate turn raise sizing is an interesting question. I think I would go a little on the small size to make it possible for him to jam over and expect to have some fold equity. Perhaps $650 or so.
  • Arenzano Posts: 1,416Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    This seems like an easy raise here. It's just the amount we are concerned about. If you raised to an amount around 680-715, you should have a decent vb on the river.

    If he folds, so be it. If he calls then ship the river
  • AesahAesah Posts: 1,048Pro
    I personally think it's a call and not that close. if he has a set you get stacks in anyway no matter what the runout (unless you choose to save money on board pairing river by just calling, so even better), and if he has air you let him continue.
  • grindbler Posts: 131Member
    I like the overbet idea. it widens your range, and you might get called pretty light, or even jammed on?
  • BartBart Posts: 5,994AdministratorLeadPro
    I ended but literally tanking to the point where the clock was almost called on me. And it wasn't for Hollywood purposes I was sincerely trying to figure out what to do. Ended up raising it to $700 and he basically snap folded. I'm still a little unsure as to whether I like this as a call or a raise and started thinking about the certain variables of the hand if we were say deeper. If we were deeper--should we ever call on the turn to "keep our ranged capped". I may be exponentially leveling this hand but does any body ever see a scenario where we call the turn to hope to get check raised on the river?

    I can't give anybody credit at $5-10 for this future street planning it would only be against some highly select, all star guys at $10-20+. But then again against guys like GMAN, Shane Rose, etc, they prob don't check rivers too much to set up craise bluffs because cause are so petrified they are constantly checking back their one pair hands.

    Bart
  • fogodchao Posts: 104Subscriber
    the c/c donk lead small ott line is pretty weak in this player pool, even in 3b pots. Would take the exploitative line and raise smaller for value and larger as a bluff.
  • daniel9861 Posts: 207Subscriber
    Maybe the better the player is the more willing we should be to flat? It's hard to say but imo history and dynamics should be the main determining factor in those spots.
  • daniel9861 Posts: 207Subscriber
    fogodchao said:
    the c/c donk lead small ott line is pretty weak in this player pool, even in 3b pots. Would take the exploitative line and raise smaller for value and larger as a bluff.
    How about a turn float instead? Looks a lot more believable imo and we lose less when we run into a monster and get bombed into OTR.

  • fogodchao Posts: 104Subscriber
    edited April 2014
    not a fan of floating with the intention to steal on later streets when donked into as the pre flop aggressor.

    possibly when you are not the pre flop raiser such as when you float a cbet, but when donked into your fe as the PFR on either the flop or turn is \ maximized when you raise the donk lead rather than call
  • swollie Posts: 83Subscriber
    I think you played fine. like I said before to me its a raise to around 750 almost always.
    can't give anybody credit at $5-10 for this future street planning it would only be against some highly select, all star guys at $10-20+. But then again against guys like GMAN, Shane Rose, etc, they prob don't check rivers too much to set up craise bluffs because cause are so petrified they are constantly checking back their one pair hands.
    it would be different if you were up against a top level player. but against an unknown or a regular player you have to go for straight value almost always. it's how we make money in this game. You can't take your own fundamental understanding of the game and the game theory as a basis to evaluate others in the hand and you didn't so I would say well played. The only thing that I don't like is that you took so long to act in my experience it makes players nervous and it brakes the flow of the hand and leads to more folds than anything else
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