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CLP Video No.161: Hand Analysis On The River

Craig Posts: 715Administrator
edited October 2014 in Crush Live Poker Videos
By the time the river comes around and based on your opponent's actions, you should have a good idea where you stand and more importantly what kind of hand your opponent has. David Tuchman offers his insight into a few of these river situations.

Episode posts at 2PM ET.

http://www.crushlivepoker.com/videos/hand-analysis-on-the-river
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  • StarwarsJediMasterStarwarsJediMaster Posts: 741Subscriber
    the hand with rich and alex with the 55 you said you would bet the river to get him off a pair like 77s or 88s what sizing would you use into a pot of 135.
  • Ron Posts: 6Member
    edited October 2014
    I like JCWs play with the QQs, had the club not come on the river I think he's gonna get good value from AA and as played he lost the minimum.(redraws are a bitch) My question would be if the flop were slightly different and JCW was holding the Q of clubs would he have called..........I think I would have.(that's why I'm here to learn)
  • chris_9090chris_9090 Posts: 101Subscriber
    edited October 2014
    Hey David,
    On Hand 2 u advocate that JCW raised otf.What are we expecting to get value from Martik?Is he going to call with a bare Ax?Given our preflop sizing read he is probably unlikely to have a good Ax,and the small Ax in his range have pair +draw.We can get value from 6x but we already beat that and we also block some from from his range(given that UTG he is probably going to play 6x suited hands).Also,on your statement that u dont think martik is going to come over the top of us, given the effective stack sizes do u think Martik will slowplay with his sets and A2hands?whouldn't be bad to face a 3b from the these hands when we have oesd ?Instead of the action played and recommended what would u think of Isidro raising with 22 otf ?
    Also ott i agree with Isidro betting bigger but i think it should be accompanied with a river barrel on most rivers.What do u think of barreling most rivers?What sizing would u use and On what rivers u will not consider bluffing when we miss //?
    Thanks In advance,
    Chris
  • chris_9090chris_9090 Posts: 101Subscriber
    Also really liked the live tell discussion with Isidro on the pop-up window in 3rd hand.If possible i would really like to see some more of these in next videos.
    Chris
  • BigLarry Posts: 86Subscriber
    Ron said:
    I like JCWs play with the QQs, had the club not come on the river I think he's gonna get good value from AA and as played he lost the minimum.(redraws are a bitch) My question would be if the flop were slightly different and JCW was holding the Q of clubs would he have called..........I think I would have.(that's why I'm here to learn)
    I disagree. I think the overwhelming majority of 2/5 players will not fold AA or KK here if we check-raise so it's time to start building the pot before a scare card kills our action on a draw-heavy board. Also, I want to set up stacks to make proper turn and river plays to get all the chips in. If a non-scare card came on turn (lets say 3 of hearts), after check raising flop you can bet the right amount on turn to have him pot-commited for river or to get him to shove over your turn bet because the pot is already big and he is unsure what to do. Since a scare card came instead ( 3 of clubs) I would like to be able to shove turn here for around a pot sized bet. If he has AA with Ace of clubs he will rarely fold and he might also call off with KK and King of clubs.

    By check-raising flop he is forced to fight for the pot on subsequent streets because of bloated pot size.

    You just have to make sure you set stacks up properly to be able to make the appropriate play based on turn card.

    Larry

  • BigLarry Posts: 86Subscriber
    chris_gr90 said:
    Hey David,
    On Hand 2 u advocate that JCW raised otf.What are we expecting to get value from Martik?Is he going to call with a bare Ax?Given our preflop sizing read he is probably unlikely to have a good Ax,and the small Ax in his range have pair +draw.We can get value from 6x but we already beat that and we also block some from from his range(given that UTG he is probably going to play 6x suited hands).Also,on your statement that u dont think martik is going to come over the top of us, given the effective stack sizes do u think Martik will slowplay with his sets and A2hands?whouldn't be bad to face a 3b from the these hands when we have oesd ?Instead of the action played and recommended what would u think of Isidro raising with 22 otf ?
    Also ott i agree with Isidro betting bigger but i think it should be accompanied with a river barrel on most rivers.What do u think of barreling most rivers?What sizing would u use and On what rivers u will not consider bluffing when we miss //?
    Thanks In advance,
    Chris
    JCW has a decent amout of equity on flop. By raising flop, he gets Martik to fold 2 random overcards which he might pair on turn if you dont raise him off flop. Additionally, he can do the same to Isidro if he has 2 random overs. Isidro might also fold the hand he has (2,2) because he is facing a bet and a raise and could potentially be drawing dead.

    I dont feel JCW needs to make a HUGE raise but I do like to see him take control of the hand immediately. A smallish raise accomplishes several objectives...

    Larry

  • DavidTuchman Posts: 786Pro
    Hey guys, sorry I haven't had a chance to respond to your comments....I promise to answer each of these asap.

    -Tuck
  • workinghard Posts: 1,570Subscriber
    Hi David,

    On the hand with Alex with 55 vs Rich with KQ, you indicate that Alex should have bet his 55 to both get better to fold such as 77 and worse to call such as AK. To clarify, are you saying that you expect a fair chance of getting the same opponent facing the same bet size to both fold a better hand and call with a worse hand on the river? While I don't want to make the mistake of thinking poker players are logical thinkers, I'm confused why one would assume that a player might call with AK but fold a small pair. My thinking is that you are perhaps saying that you would make a bigger bet size to get pairs to fold and smaller bets to get AK to call. Thanks for clarifying. Good video.
  • DavidTuchman Posts: 786Pro
    edited October 2014
    Working Hard: To clarify, you should be betting the river against CERTAIN players to get them to fold 77, and against OTHER players you should be betting to get value from AK.

    That's probably what I'm doing in this spot. I could even make an argument for check/folding the river. or Check/Raising... The only line I don't like is check/calling....Bart mentions this all the time and I tend to agree. Check/calling the river is usually not a profitable play.

  • DavidTuchman Posts: 786Pro
    StarwarsJediMaster said:
    the hand with rich and alex with the 55 you said you would bet the river to get him off a pair like 77s or 88s what sizing would you use into a pot of 135.
    There's now two overcards to his mid-pair and he obviously doesn't have a HUGE hand unless he checked back JJ and hit his set on the river. I think I might bet around $80. If my opponent is sticky, I might size it even larger; $120

  • DavidTuchman Posts: 786Pro
    Ron said:
    I like JCWs play with the QQs, had the club not come on the river I think he's gonna get good value from AA and as played he lost the minimum.(redraws are a bitch) My question would be if the flop were slightly different and JCW was holding the Q of clubs would he have called..........I think I would have.(that's why I'm here to learn)
    if the club doesn't come on the river...it goes check and check and JCW gets no value. Keep in mind whether JCW has the Q of clubs or not, the value of his hand is the same. His opponent either has the Ace or King of clubs or nothing...he's not moving in with a smaller club for value.

    We don't care about "protecting our hand" ... we do care about maximizing value. When our opponent has AA, he's ready to play a huge pot. I don't want a scare card to come off and kill my action.

    On top of that, I don't believe that opponent is going to be firing two or three streets as a bluff. Maybe JCW thought he would BLUFF and if that's the case, we can make argument for checking all three streets but I still think I prefer clicking it back and letting my opponent spew
  • DavidTuchman Posts: 786Pro
    chris_gr90 said:
    Also really liked the live tell discussion with Isidro on the pop-up window in 3rd hand.If possible i would really like to see some more of these in next videos.
    Chris
    live tells are definitely underrated....that said, unless you're at the table, it can be hard to look at something in a vacuum and jump to a conclusion
  • DavidTuchman Posts: 786Pro
    chris_gr90 said:
    Hey David,
    On Hand 2 u advocate that JCW raised otf.What are we expecting to get value from Martik?Is he going to call with a bare Ax?Given our preflop sizing read he is probably unlikely to have a good Ax,and the small Ax in his range have pair +draw.We can get value from 6x but we already beat that and we also block some from from his range(given that UTG he is probably going to play 6x suited hands).Also,on your statement that u dont think martik is going to come over the top of us, given the effective stack sizes do u think Martik will slowplay with his sets and A2hands?whouldn't be bad to face a 3b from the these hands when we have oesd ?Instead of the action played and recommended what would u think of Isidro raising with 22 otf ?
    Also ott i agree with Isidro betting bigger but i think it should be accompanied with a river barrel on most rivers.What do u think of barreling most rivers?What sizing would u use and On what rivers u will not consider bluffing when we miss //?
    Thanks In advance,
    Chris
    So, I mention raising for value...

    This is my thinking. Martik might call with just two overs. But more importantly, your hand has a ton of value against an overpair which he won't fold. So while you're technically behind right now, your hand plays so well against an over pair like TT that you can argue you're raising for value. Raising otf gives you the ability to take it away with what might not be the best hand on a later street, hitting your hand and building a pot so it's more difficult for your opponent to fold to to your value bet later on....and thirdly, I do believe Martik takes one off with something like AJ
    .

    If Martik comes over the top, he's got us crushed and tbh, our hand isn't all that great that I mind dumping it. If we hit the straight, it'll be hard to get value and we could very easily be crushed.

    As for River, when JCW just calls the tiny bet on the turn, he really can't have a huge hand. I'm going to be bluffing a ton of non-connecting rivers. JCW might have a 5 here or...maybe he has a straight draw. i'm not betting a 7 or a 5. Everything else I'm going to bet...represent the 4 and try to get my opponent to fold a hand like 6/5
  • DavidTuchman Posts: 786Pro
    Big Larry - I like your thought process.

    tuck

  • kristouffe Posts: 54Subscriber
    edited October 2015
    55 against KQ hand on a 3 Q 4 J 4 board

    The best play against an old guy like Rich is to check fold the river imo.

    He could have pot control turn with AJ, KJ, QT.
    The preflop raiser bet flop, check back turn and bet river = more often than not a value line (at least, that's what Bart taught me).

    The donk river to get value is too advanced for me, i'm not confortable with it. As i understand it, you have to be against the right opponent with the right image to get the result that you want. I don't know if Rich is the right guy.

    I have heard several famous pro talking about that strange value/bluff line but i didn't incorporate in my game mainly because it sound strange to me.

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