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Free Video: CLP Video No. 287: Home Game Bart Reviews His Splashy At $1-$3 Deep Part 2

Free Podcast: CLP Podcast No. 54: Time Warp And Turn Value
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whofox

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whofox
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  • Did they play in 21? What were the mechanics? I think you could actually play this at the table if you could find someone smart enough to take a perceived 20% edge but not smart enough to know about the Monty Hall problem. All you need is a small no…
  • I think the analysis from ww and luckyspewy is solid but I don't think my draw is as terrible as it looks. Playing around with ranges I put my equity on the flop at somewhere between 25 and 30% and given his bet I only need about 28%. If that's the …
  • I see what you're saying and I definitely agree that the flop call is questionable. But I still think it was right against this particular villain. There's almost no way that he has a flush draw on the flop here since he can't have AKd and I don't t…
  • In the games I play folding is way too tight, especially against a thinking player. I'd call and evaluate but be prepared to face more heat on pretty much any turn. I wouldn't ignore the backdoor nut flush draw as that gives you a lot of outs to cal…
  • That action can't be quite right. You have the As in your hand and on the turn. Does it matter? Was it really the Ad so the flush comes in on the river?
  • Yet another reason to post here instead of 2+2. I don't know about your game but I feel like worse could definitely call here. Most guys would call with JT or QT or a flush draw so I say raise the flop and evaluate how they call.
  • From the way you've described him I feel like you're way ahead of his range. Putting in the range Wackabrew suggested, for instance, you have almost 70% equity. And even if he's got a flush you have a redraw. Do what you can to get the money in so a…
  • If you read him as spewy and semi competent then definitely call. Spewey + semi competent = fancy play syndrome and he could be using the A and K as scare cards even though that's pretty stupid given the preflop action unless he knows you can fold a…
  • I'm just thinking that a check raise on the flop looks a lot like either a flush draw OR a set but donk shoving a blank turn card looks a lot more like a set than a flush draw since a lot of people would check a flush draw on the turn, hoping to see…
  • I agree, Vincent, that's I'm probably not getting a lot more fold equity playing it check/call, donk shove but I bet I get some more. Doesn't that line just scream set?
  • I think the call on the flop may be the thing to focus on here, Roger. I don't think I'm ahead if I either flop just an A or a 9 on this hand. The odds of flopping a flush draw are about 8 to 1 and I'm getting about 6 to 1 to call the raise so I thi…
  • I did check/shove and with these stack sizes/bet sizes I think I agree that the hand pretty much plays itself. The only wrinkle is that I know this villain pretty well and I think he has QQ, KK, or AA, here probably 95% of the time or more. He could…
  • I know this villain and he pretty much never has rags. Maybe he'd show up with 88 or 99 occasionally but he's raising for value almost every time here and I think he would raise more with something like TT or 88. I'm leaning towards the checkraise …
  • I had him pegged as an old nit on a super heater (he'd been down to about $30 and turned that into about $700.) So he was playing a little crazy but he definitely wasn't good. So I read his tiny bets as actually representing strength instead of bloc…
  • Thanks, John. One thing I didn't mention is that I have virtually no fold equity against the flop raiser. Maybe the original bettor but the guy who raised is a regular and I know he's never folding there.
  • aaronmurray said Glad it's up and running, especially with iTunes 11 being so nitpicky about changing file format to "podcast." Unfortunately, I can't figure out how to go back and find or change my password. Any help? I'm all good. Please ignore …
  • Glad it's up and running, especially with iTunes 11 being so nitpicky about changing file format to "podcast." Unfortunately, I can't figure out how to go back and find or change my password. Any help?